Days after their narrow win over the Raiders, the Chiefs are set to host the Bills in a battle of Super Bowl hopefuls. Two tremendous offenses will meet in one of this season’s premier battles, the first matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen since their playoff thriller in January. Will the Chiefs get the best of Buffalo again?
Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and take a look at the odds ahead of Sunday’s matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
The Bills are rare road favorites in Kansas City, entering favored by 2.5 points and sitting -146 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 53.5 points.
You’ll rarely see the Chiefs enter as a home underdog, but they’re not unbeatable at home. The Bills beat them in Kansas City last year, months before the Chiefs fell at home in the AFC Title Game, and the Chargers and Raiders both came close to wins at Arrowhead this year. Can the Bills get it done?
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
By all indications, the Bills are back. Did they ever leave? A loss to the Dolphins and narrow win over the Ravens made this team look vulnerable, but the offense again looked unstoppable against the Steelers.
After what we saw the Raiders do to the Chiefs’ defense on Monday night, you have to expect the Bills will score plenty of points in this one. Buffalo scored 38 and 36 points in their two games in Kansas City last season. With Gabe Davis back healthy and thriving in the Bills’ passing game, it’s going to be tough for the Chiefs to find enough options in the secondary to effectively defend Davis and Stefon Diggs.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the Bills try to run the ball a bit after what Josh Jacobs did to the Chiefs’ defense. We know Allen can run, but it could benefit Buffalo to try to exploit this run defense and add some unpredictability to their offense.
A thin Bills secondary is similarly a problem against the gauntlet that is the Chiefs’ offense. Kansas City has a tendency to start slow offensively, but once the unit gets into a rhythm, it’s tough to stop.
If Patrick Mahomes has time in the pocket, you have to figure he’s going to beat the Bills’ defense all night. Even without Tyreek Hill, he still has weapons all over the field. The Bills struggled to keep them contained with an even healthier secondary in January. It’ll be critical, as always, to cover Travis Kelce tightly, but that may leave other receivers open throughout the game.
The best way the Bills can prevent Mahomes from torching their secondary is to keep him under pressure. After Maxx Crosby had an impressive night against Kansas City’s offensive line, I’ll be watching what Von Miller and Greg Rousseau can do to pressure Mahomes – it might be enough to make the difference in this game.
- The Bills are 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Even with a high standard set, the Bills deliver more often than not
- The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. While the Chiefs are excellent at home, one of those ATS losses came against the Raiders on Monday
- The under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games. As great as Buffalo’s offense is, o53.5 points may not be a safe bet
Buffalo Bills Injuries: Tight end Dawson Knox (foot, hamstring) and safety Jordan Poyer (ribs) are questionable after missing Week 4. Cornerback Christian Benford is questionable as he recovers from hand surgery. Safety Micah Hyde remains out for the season. Receiver Isaiah McKenzie missed Week 5 with a concussion but looks to be on track for Week 6.
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries: Kicker Harrison Butker is questionable after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. Guard Trey Smith is questionable with a pectoral injury.
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Bills vs. Chiefs below.
Bills Pass-Rush vs. Chiefs Offensive Line
As mentioned earlier, the key for the Bills might be how much they can get to Mahomes. Mahomes’ line isn’t a problem right now, but he’s been sacked three times in each of his last two games and faces another tough pass-rush unit on Sunday.
This will be another major test for left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who’s still seeking a contract. Buffalo will risk this game ending up like the divisional round matchup if Mahomes is constantly left with time to make something happen.
Chiefs Secondary vs. Bills Passing Game
The Chiefs had a hard time slowing down the Derek Carr and Davante Adams connection on Monday night. What will happen with two standout receivers on the field at the same time? Stefon Diggs is one of the best in the game, but Gabe Davis is capable of an explosive play at any given time.
Davis torched the Chiefs’ secondary in the divisional round, so a unit that hasn’t exactly been dominant this season will need to figure out how to slow Allen and his two favorite targets.