The Chicago Bears (2-2) head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings (3-1) on Sunday, October 9 at 1:00pm ET. The Vikings are back in the USA after picking up a win over the New Orleans Saints in London last week, while the Bears are coming off a road loss against the New York Giants. The Vikings won both games in this divisional matchup last year and hold a 63-57-2 all-time record against Da Bears. Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Bears vs. Vikings matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
The Vikings opened as 7-point favorites against their divisional rival with moneyline odds ranging from -320 to -335. The over/under for this matchup opened at 43 and has creeped up to 44 at some sportsbooks. Early money is heavily leaning towards the Vikings, with about 90% of the money being bet on the Vikings ATS and on the moneyline, and about 65% on the under.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
The Bears don’t offer a lot of reason to be confident in covering a spread right now, even a relatively big number like +7. Their offense is simply dreadful. The passing attack is virtually non-existent – they have attempted just 67 passes all season, 31 less than the next lowest team.
They can be effective on the ground with David Montgomery (if healthy) and Khalil Herbert, but if they fall behind early, they won’t be able to continue relying on the run game to keep up with the Vikings’ high-powered attack. If they fall behind, their league-worst run defense will be vulnerable to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison controlling the time of possession, limiting their opportunities to come back.
The Bears’ best hope is to generate some pressure on Kirk Cousins and create some turnovers, which their defense is capable of doing. They have the fourth highest pressure rate and are tied for seventh in the league with seven takeaways. But Cousins does a pretty good job of protecting the football and getting rid of it quickly, so it’s not likely the Bears defense will be able to create enough scoring opportunities for the offense.
Generally I would want to fade the public when they are leaning so heavily towards one side, but in this case I just can’t do it. I like the Vikings to win and cover, and they will score enough points to push the total over 44.
My prediction: Vikings win 31-17, Vikings cover, over 44 points
- Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC North opponents
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games
- Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall
- Over is 5-1 in Vikings last six games at home and 6-1 in their last seven games on fieldturf
- Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Minnesota
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Vikings
Chicago Bears Injuries: RB David Montgomery (Q – ankle), CB Jaylon Johnson (Q – quad), DB Jaylon Jones (Q – illness), DB Dane Cruikshank (Q – hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (Q – achilles), OLB Matthew Adams (Q – hamstring)
Minnesota Vikings Injuries: CB Andrew Booth Jr. (Q – Quad), OLB Za’Darius Smith (Q – knee)
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings below.
The Bears’ offensive line vs. the Vikings’ pass rush
The Bears’ offensive line has been their achilles heel for a while now, and this year has been no different. They are giving up a sack on 19.3% of their dropbacks and forcing young QB Justin Fields to make off-schedule plays. The Vikings have two dangerous edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith, although they haven’t been to generate the pressure they want with just a 19.5% pressure rate this season. That could change against the Bears’ woeful offensive live.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook vs. Bears’ run defense
The Bears have the worst run defense in the league through four games, giving up 183.25 yards per game (32nd) on 5.1 yards per carry (26th). They were just gashed by Saquon Barkley last week to the tune of 146 yards, and now they face another top running back in Cook as well as a solid backup running back in Alexander Mattison. The Vikings’ offense may not be as run-heavy as it was under former coach Mike Zimmer, but Cook and Mattison should both see plenty of opportunities in this game, especially if the passing attack gives the Vikings an early lead.