Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (11/12/23)
The 5-3, NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks are back with the 12’s this week hosting the 4-5 Washington Commanders, who are coming off a thrilling win over the Patriots. Check out odds, predictions, best bets, matchups, and more, below.
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Preview & Prediction
The Seahawks played their worst game of the season last week in a 37-3 loss to Baltimore. While it was a lopsided matchup to begin with, giving up 515 yards on defense and scraping together 151 on offense is beyond lopsided. It’s embarassing. Kenneth Walker had 16 yards, Geno Smith threw his seventh interception, and the offense went touchdown-less for four quarters.
All that said, there is good bounce back potential for Seattle here. Kenneth Walker should be able to increase production from last week’s performance as Washington is ranking 29th in defensive DVOA and 20th in rush yards against. Plus, this Commanders defense is allowing the sixth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks and ranks 29th and 30th in pass defense DVOA and EPA, repsectively. Washington also lost Chase Young and Montez Sweat – the team’s top two sack leaders – at the trade deadline so this should give Smith some room to breathe.
Sam Howell and the Commanders battled back against New England to break a losing streak last week and hop to 4-5. Howell has shown improvement game-over-game as he develops chemistry with his versatile receiving corps that includes Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas. They’re facing the 19th ranked team in defensive DVOA, but there will be a lot of competitive matchups with the Seahawks secondary.
Seattle’s defensive issues were on full display last week but they have a chance to right the ship here against a mediocre Washington offense that ranks 23rd in offensive DVOA. Offensively, expect a motivational performance from Seattle.
Seattle is definitely the more talented team here – especially at home – but until they prove that last week’s performance was just a one-off, I’m not taking them to cover a 6.5-point spread, especially versus a Commanders team that is 4-0 ATS as road underdogs this year.
Commanders vs. Seahawks Best Bets: Seahawks ML, Geno Smith Over 1.5 Touchdowns
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds
Seahawks are 6.5-point home favorites over the Commanders here, which may be slightly devaluing Sam Howell’s ability. The over/under is 45.5 which is on the higher end of all over/under’s in Week 10.
Key Injuries
Washington’s Curtis Samuel was out last week with a toe injury and is listed as questionable for this week’s matchup alongside other receiver Jahan Dotson.
The Seahawks have several starters listed as questionable due to varying injuries – not uncommon for this team at this point in the week. Kenneth Walker is somewhat of a question mark as he is dealing with a chest injury that had Seattle’s backup Zach Charbonnet outsnap him in Week 9.
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Key Matchups
See below the key matchups and mismatches for the Commanders vs. Seahawks game.
Seahawks passing game vs. Commanders’ secondary
Geno Smith and company need to rewrite last week’s script in the worst way. The Commanders give them the perfect chance to do it. They’re allowing the sixth-most passing yards and seventh-highest yards per pass average and opposing quarterbacks throw the ball against them nearly 60% of the time.
In addition to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the recent emergence of rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo has bolstered the versatility of this offense. One of them should be able to find the endzone as the Commanders have given up the second-most passing touchdowns this season (19).
Commanders running backs vs. Seahawks front seven
Prior to last week’s game, I would have said that the Seahawks run defense was my favorite part about this team. But last week’s 300-yard mishap told another story. They now rank 25th in rush defense EPA and 18th in rush defense DVOA.
While Washington’s running game isn’t necessarily something to write home about, it’s ranked ninth in DVOA and 14th in success rate. Brian Robinson Jr. carries the load well and has contributed five touchdowns and 440 ground yards this season.
Both units are middle-of-the-pack in terms of talent level, so they should matchup well.
Washington Commanders Depth Chart
QB: Sam Howell
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas
Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
QB: Geno Smith
RB1: Kenneth Walker
RB2: Zach Charbonnet
LWR: DK Metcalf
RWR: Tyler Lockett
SWR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE1: Noah Fant
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