Should the Seattle Seahawks lose to the LA Rams, then this is one of the biggest games in Detroit Lions history. It’s win or go home as they travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers with playoff implications. It seems unfathomable that the Packers have a shot as well after starting 4-8. In what is the biggest game of Sunday, who will come out on top?
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Oddsmakers initially lean towards the Packers as they opened them up just above the key number of -3. Bettors are in agreement, backing the Pack up to as high as -4.5 as of writing. This comes as little surprise as the Packers have been red hot, just steam rolled the Vikings, and get the benefit of being home. It also needs to be mentioned that Lions quarterback Jared Goff is a shell of himself on the road with eye opening contrasting home and away splits.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored in bunches as oddsmakers opened the total at 47. Bettors believe the same, taking it up to as high as 48.5. The Lions defense has regressed back to their playing ways at the beginning of the season, especially defending the run. This bodes well for a Packers offense that has been improving with each game and fields one of the most lethal running duos in football in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Prediction
The Pick: Over 48
With that said, I will take the over at any number lower than 49. The Packers offense should have little to no issue moving the ball down the field against the Lions reeling defense. Especially if Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon can find success on the ground early. They get an opportunity to feast on a defense that gave up over 10 yards per carry to the Panthers throughout most of the game and +100 yards to Justin Fields.
The Packers pass attack has also been slowly improving as Rodgers has gotten more accumulated with his young receiving core. The Lions secondary has improved, but if the ground game sucks them up to respect the ground game, then this makes them susceptible to getting beat over the top. While it hasn’t been a typical MVP type season, Rodgers is still more than capable of letting the ball fly with pinpoint accuracy.
It absolutely pains me to say it, but the Packers should have won in their earlier matchup against the Lions. Unfortunate red zone luck killed two drives, giving the Lions just enough opportunities to squeak out a win. Expecting the red zone woes to tick back towards their favor, then scoring opportunities will be plenty and get points on the board for our over ticket.
- Over is 9-2 in Lions last 11 games coming off an ATS win
- Over is 14-3 in Packers last 17 games in January
Detroit Lions Injuries: Josh Woods (Q), Justin Jackson (Q)
Green Bay Packers Injuries: Keisean Nixon (Q)
Can Jared Goff round back into form and shake off his away game slumps?
Jared Goff vs Green Bay secondary
It’s been a consistent theme in Goff’s career, turning into a pumpkin in the pocket in the midst of road games. The contrast of his level of play when on the road compared to home is alarming, but we may see him kick that bucket as the Packers defense has been suspect all season.
Especially when defending the run, giving Goff an opportunity to settle in and get the offense in a rhythm should Swift and Williams find success on the ground. If they can compact the Packers defense and give Goff ample protection, then he should have no issue making the right read in passing situations.
Getting Goff in a groove will be key as getting both offenses humming will be beneficial for our over ticket.
With the Packers offense being able to move the ball with ease and fielding a weak secondary for Goff to pick apart, I will take the over at no higher than 49 in what will be a thrilling matchup with playoff hopes on the line.