Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Preview (9/25/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

The Texans and Bears were two of the biggest surprises of the NFL’s opening weekend, but they combined for just 16 points in Week 2. One of those teams will be coming out of their Week 3 matchup with at least a .500 record. Who has a better chance to bounce back?

Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and examine the odds ahead of Sunday’s matchup at Soldier Field.

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds

The Bears enter as a 3-point home favorite and sit at -150 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 40.5 points.

Neither of these teams seemingly have a chance at playoff contention, even after showing some real fight early in the season. Oddsmakers give the Bears a slight edge in a battle of bad teams, but it feels like the line might be flipped if it were Houston at home.

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Prediction

Both of these teams are playing with heart despite a clear talent disadvantage. I especially like what I’ve seen from the Texans, who managed to hold on for a tie against the Colts in Week 1 and held down the Broncos’ offense this past weekend with an undermanned defense.

On this rare occasion, Houston also has the quarterback advantage. Davis Mills has shown much more capability as a passer than Justin Fields since they entered the league, and it’s clear the Bears don’t trust Fields to pass his way to wins at this point.

For the Bears to win this game, the defense will have to step up like it did in Week 1. The unit got trampled by Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, but that’s to be expected. Chicago might just need to hold down the Texans’ bottom-tier offense as much as the Broncos did to pull out the home victory. On the offensive end, they might be able to get away with Fields’ limited passing ability if David Montgomery plays like he did against the Packers.

The Texans may have the better team, but I’ll go with the Bears at home. Since I expect a close, low-scoring game, Bears -3 is a risk compared to Bears moneyline, but it’s the better value.

Betting Trends

• The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It’s easy to doubt a Davis Mills-led team, but Houston’s competitiveness has been impressive dating back to last season.
• The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Chicago covered in the season opener, so it’s possible they’re breaking what became a trend under Matt Nagy.
• The under is 7-1 in the Texans’ last 8 road games. That can be attributed to poor offense more than great defense.

Key Injuries

Houston Texans Injuries: Center Justin Britt’s status is unknown after he missed Week 2 due to personal reasons. Tight end Brevin Jordan has been battling an ankle injury but should be good to go after he was active against Denver.

Chicago Bears Injuries: Rookie receiver Velus Jones Jr. is questionable after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury. Offensive lineman Alex Leatherwood is on the non-football illness list and is out.

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Saints vs. Panthers below.

David Montgomery vs. Texans Run Defense

David Montgomery’s Week 1 struggles might’ve sent a chill down the spine of fantasy owners, but he erupted for 122 yards on 15 attempts against the Packers on Sunday night. He could be the key to a win over Houston.

Jonathan Taylor never broke free against the Texans’ run defense but did rush for 161 yards on 5.2 yards per carry. Javonte Williams was efficient against Houston as well, helping to keep the Broncos in Sunday’s game. If Montgomery can continue that trend, he’ll be a difference-maker for the Bears’ offense.

Texans Offensive Line vs. Bears Pass-Rush

The Texans’ offensive line isn’t the weakest group compared to the rest of the roster, but it’s not the most stable unit, either. Davis Mills has been sacked six times so far this season, and the Bears could add that total in Week 3.

Chicago took down Aaron Rodgers three times on Sunday night, including a sack by Robert Quinn, who had 18.5 last season. Trevis Gipson notched two sacks of Rodgers, and rookie Dominique Robinson had 1.5 sacks of Trey Lance in Week 1.

If the Texans can neutralize one of the stronger points of the Bears’ defense, they’ll have a much better chance to get the passing game working again.

Houston Texans Depth Chart

QB: Davis Mills
RB1: Rex Burkhead
RB2: Dameon Pierce
RB3: Dare Ogunbowale
LWR: Nico Collins
RWR: Brandin Cooks
SWR: Chris Moore
TE1: Pharaoh Brown

Chicago Bears Depth Chart

QB: Justin Fields
RB1: David Montgomery
RB2: Khalil Herbert
RB3: Trestan Ebner
LWR: Equanimeous St. Brown
RWR: Darnell Mooney
TE1: Cole Kmet