After going against one of the best offenses in the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs now travel to Denver in a battle against one of the worst. It’s safe to say the Russell Wilson experiment has gone horribly wrong in year one, but he can start making amends with a huge upset win against the Chiefs. Can Wilson pull off the unthinkable?
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Betting Odds
Oddsmakers don’t think so as they opened the Broncos at +6.5. Bettors are also in agreement that they are outmatched by betting the Broncos all the way up to +9 in some shops. The Russell Wilson led Broncos have been the laughingstock of the league and will be hard pressed to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs scoring output.
As for the total, this is where I am perplexed as oddsmakers set this at 42.5 and was quickly bet up to 43.5. With intentions of taking the under, I will instead shift my focus elsewhere until this number hits the key total of 45. While the Chiefs offense is the best in the league, they will be slowed down by the vaunted Broncos defense while Denver will continue to struggle scoring themselves.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction
The Pick: Chiefs Teaser Piece
With the total’s initial movement giving me pause, I will instead shift my focus towards the spread. Specifically on the Chiefs -8.5, making them a prime Wong Teaser piece. While I think the Chiefs bounce back nicely with the Broncos offense being no threat to their league average defense, I want extra security by taking it down to -2.5.
The Chiefs rank near average across the board in Overall Def DVOA, once again being their Achilles heel from being able to put away teams comfortably and covering large spreads. The main reason why I want to use them as a teaser piece instead of taking them at the current number instead, especially while being on the road.
While their defense is league average, the Chiefs offense is once again the most dominant unit in football. Thanks in large part to Patrick Mahomes leading the pass attack during an MVP type season, leading the Chiefs to a 1st placed ranking in Overall DVOA.
Even without Tyreek Hill’s ability to stretch defenses with his downfield presence, Andy Reid has transformed the offense to rely more on consistency in sustained drives. With creative play calling to couple with Mahomes next level throwing ability, the Chiefs have made even the best defenses look soft while struggling to defend them.
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with losing records
- Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 coming off a ATS win
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries: Frank Clark (Q), Deon Bush (Q), Kadarius Toney (D)
Denver Broncos Injuries: Dakota Allen (D), KJ Hamler (D)
Can the Chiefs get their ground game going against the Broncos? How will Denver’s offense find life?
Chiefs ground game vs Broncos rush defense
While we know what Mahomes is capable of doing to opposing defense through the air, it’s their ground game that has question marks. While their ground game has never been a staple since Andy Reid and Mahomes have taken over, it’s a huge benefit for them to have one.
With CEH hobbled, and no true threat residing in the backfield, defenses have been able to sit back and put more emphasis in covering the pass. This has resulted in Mahomes relying on tight throws and plays to open up, a metric that is not sustainable over the long run.
Broncos offensive woes vs Chiefs defense
While the Chiefs don’t pose much of a defensive threat, the Broncos are still hard pressed to find offensive life. While it’s tough to bench a $200 million dollar man, Wilson has done them no favors with his poor pocket presence and head scratching play making. We may see the Chiefs send more pressure to get to Wilson, leaving them vulnerable to get beat over the top.