Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Preview (1/7/23): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

Now that the NFL has decided how they are going to judge the events that happened earlier this week, the situation remains the same for the AFC leading Chiefs. If they win, they secure the number one seed. In order to do that, they must win on the road against the new face Las Vegas Raiders. New face as in quarterback Derek Carr has left the team and Jarrett Stidham has taken over. Can the Chiefs secure the number one seed?

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds

Oddsmakers think so as they opened the Chiefs as a -8.5 favorite. Bettors are in agreement, backing the Chiefs up to as high as -9.5. This comes as no surprise as this is a must win game for the Chiefs should they want to secure the coveted first seed in the NFL playoffs. This is also a tricky spot as we may see the Chiefs take their foot off the pedal late in the game to preserve health which gives the Raiders a chance to get the backdoor cover.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in a flash as oddsmakers opened the total at 50. Bettors are in agreement, backing the number up to as high as 52. This is heavily correlated to the Raiders competitive ability in the midst of an identity change. Should the Raiders keep this somewhat competitive, then the Chiefs would have no choice but to keep the offensive onslaught going.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

The Pick: Over 51.5

With that said, I will back the over at no higher than 52. The Chiefs offense will once again have to carry the team for a win so they can secure the number one seed. That means we can expect a plethora of points on their end early on. Their defense will also be a key factor as they have been below average in both Def Pass and Rush DVOA, giving the Raiders ample opportunities to put up points on their own end.

Especially on the ground. While not normally a type of attack that is friendly to the over, the Raiders have fielded one of the better rushing units in the NFL behind the back of star running back Josh Jacobs. Should he be good to go as he is currently listed as questionable, then we can expect the run game to once again succeed against a 17th ranked Def Rush DVOA. Especially with Stidham under center, most likely wanting to go conservative to limit his mistakes.

Speaking of Stidham, he is presented with an opportunity to make a statement as the Chiefs secondary has struggled to consistently defend the pass. Currently ranked 22nd in Def Pass DVOA, Stidham can make a claim to be a serious contender at quarterback next year. Especially with their weapons on the outside with Davante Adams and Darren Waller streaking down the field.

Betting Trends

• Over is 10-2 in Chiefs last 12 road games
• Over is 5-1 in Raiders last six games vs a team with a winning record
• Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings against each other

Key Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs Injuries: Harrison Butker (Q), Mecole Hardman (Q), Skyy Moore (O)

Las Vegas Raiders Injuries: Josh Jacobs (Q), Jackson Barton (Q), Derek Carr (O)

Key Matchups

Can Mahomes and company continue to dominate through the air against the Raiders?

Chiefs air raid vs Raiders secondary

Simply put, yes. The Chiefs have pulled away as far and away the number one passing unit by ranking first in Off Pass DVOA while the Raiders are the worst coverage unit in the NFL.

Should their offensive line keep pressure off of Mahomes, then he will have ample time to make the right read and continuously burn the Raiders down the field. Especially as they have been far more efficient than normal, limiting mistakes and sustaining drives down the field.

Verdict

Take the over in what may be a surprisingly competitive game through all four quarters, forcing points to continuously be put on the board by the Chiefs to pull away for the number one seed.

Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Isiah Pacheco
RB2: Jerick McKinnon
LWR: Marquez Valdes Scantling
RWR: Mecole Hardman
SWR: Juju Smith-Schuster
TE1: Travis Kelce

Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart

QB: Jarrett Stidham
RB1: Josh Jacobs
RB2: Brandon Bolden
LWR: Davante Adams
RWR: Mack Hollins
SWR: Hunter Renfrow
TE1: Darren Waller