Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Preview (10/23/2022): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Charts
In a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) on Sunday, October 23 at Levi Stadium. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, but they were disappointing for different reasons.
The Chiefs lost at home to top Super Bowl contender Buffalo in a highly anticipated, hotly contested matchup. Kansas City also lost to Buffalo in the regular season last year before beating them in the epic playoff matchup in the divisional round. While a statement win would have been nice, the loss isn’t going to make or break their season.
On the other hand, the 49ers’ poor performance in a 28-14 road loss to Atlanta raises plenty of cause for concern. The Falcons had their way with the 49ers’ vaunted but injury-depleted defense, rushing for 168 yards on 40 carries, while quarterback Marcus Mariota only threw one incompletion. If they just let the Falcons’ offense do that, what can we expect them to do against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds
The Chiefs opened as 2-point road favorites and that moved to the key number of -3 fairly quickly thanks to over 90% of the early money and bets being on Kansas City. Kansas City has moneyline odds ranging from -150 to -170 at various sportsbooks, and over 80% of the money is on the Chiefs moneyline.
The over/under for this matchup opened at 46.5 and has moved up to 48.5, which seems to be a very good line because money is very evenly split on this one.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
These teams are fairly evenly matched, which should make for a close and exciting contest as would be expected of two teams with recent playoff success. Kansas City brings the league’s No. 1 scoring offense into this game to square off against San Francisco’s No. 2 scoring defense. On the other side, San Francisco’s offense and Kansas City’s defense have each been average at best so far this season, but both teams have the rosters to play better than they have so far.
Both teams are stout against the run, with the 49ers’ defense ranking 2nd and the Chiefs close behind at 4th. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th right now, but can the 49ers’ run-focused offensive system exploit that vulnerability?
The toughest part of handicapping this matchup for me is what to make of the 49ers’ perplexing loss to the Falcons last week. Was it a sign that this team is not as good as we thought, or was it just a one-game blip? Considering the 49ers played on the east coast in back-to-back weeks and stayed on the east coast in between those games, I’m inclined to think it was more of a mirage than real cause for concern. The 49ers were also missing several key players on defense including All-Pro pass rusher Nick Bosa, and the Falcons have also been surprisingly feisty so far this season.
Back in their home stadium, and hopefully with a few key players back from injury, I expect the 49ers to play much better this week against the Chiefs and to do enough on defense to keep the game close. But the Chiefs will put up some points, so the big question will be whether San Francisco’s offense can do enough to keep up.
I expect the Chiefs to come away with the victory, and they are getting decent odds on the moneyline, but not good enough for me to bet that. There is a good enough chance that San Francisco wins this game outright that I would prefer to take the 49ers with the points, especially if Bosa returns.
But my favorite bet in this one is on the under. Both teams are top five in the league in pressure rate, and I expect them to be able to disrupt the opposing quarterbacks and slow down their offenses enough to keep the scoring down.
My prediction: Chiefs win 24-23, 49ers cover, under 48.5 total points
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with a winning record and 6-0 in their last six home games.
- 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss.
- Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven road games, while Under is 4-0 in 49ers last four home +games.
- Under is 12-2 in 49ers last 14 games overall
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams, and the home team is 5-0 in the last five.
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries: LG Joe Thuney (Q – ankle), S Bryan Cook (Q – concussion), CB Rashad Fenton (Q – hamstring), CB Trent McDuffie (Q – hamstring), DE Mike Danna (Q – calf)
San Francisco 49ers Injuries: LT Trent Williams (Q – ankle), DT Arik Armstead (Q – ankle), DE Nick Bosa (Q – groin), DB Jimmie Ward (Q – hand), RT Mike McGlinchey (Q – calf), CB Charvarius Ward (Q – groin), S Talanoa Hufanga (Q – concussion), DE Samson Ebukam (Q – achilles), DE Drake Jackson (Q – knee)
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers below.
Chiefs’ offensive line vs. 49ers’ pass rush
Needless to say, the Chiefs need to keep Patrick Mahomes upright to be successful, and they’re facing one of the fiercest pass rushing units in the league in the 49ers. A big key to this one will be the health of the 49ers’ defense, especially whether Nick Bosa will be able to play and if so how effective he can be.
Even after missing last week’s game, Bosa leads the league with 16 QB hits and is tied for 2nd with six sacks. If he is healthy and plays to his usual standards, he could single-handedly wreck the Chiefs’ offensive game plan. Without him, and with several other key defensive lineman like Arik Armstead and Samson Ebukam also hobbled, Mahomes will have plenty of time to pick apart the 49ers’ secondary.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel vs. Chiefs’ secondary
While the 49ers defense is dealing with a plague of injuries, the Chiefs is actually getting healthier, as they expect CB Rashad Fenton back this week and may also be getting rookie first-round pick Trent McDuffie back from injury to make his NFL debut. Perhaps those reinforcements can help improve the Chiefs’ 27th ranked passing defense as they look to contain one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league in Deebo Samuel.
The Chiefs are also one of the worst tackling teams in the league with 39 missed tackles so far this year, tied for 4th worst in the league. That could spell trouble against one of the league’s best yards-after-catch producers in Deebo, not to mention one of the best tight ends after the catch in George Kittle.