The Chargers and Texans enter their Week 4 matchup with a combined one win as both teams try to recover from back-to-back losses. The Chargers’ season has gone off the rails with numerous key injuries, while Houston seems destined for a top-five pick in April. The Texans upset the Chargers in 2021. Can they do it again?
Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and take a look at the odds ahead of Sunday’s matchup in Houston.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds
The Chargers enter as 5-point favorites and sit at -225 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 44.5 points.
The line has narrowed after the tumultuous week the Chargers just had. While they looked like a serious contender in a close loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers were blown out by the Jaguars and lost two key players to season-ending injuries in Rashawn Slater and Jalen Guyton.
With Joey Bosa also hurt and Justin Herbert playing through pain, the Chargers wouldn’t be decisive favorites against many teams. So why are they this time? The Texans just lost to a Bears team without a functioning passing game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans Prediction
The Chargers should be able to win this game, but this is a stripped down version of the team they entered the season with. With that being said, even an injured Justin Herbert should be enough to get past this Texans defense, especially after LA was humbled by Houston late last season.
This might actually be an ideal matchup for the Chargers’ offense, considering Herbert’s injury. Houston’s run defense is so poor that Austin Ekeler and Sony Michel should be able to take some pressure off of Herbert’s arm. The only question there is the Chargers’ offensive line, which is getting thinner by the day and might struggle to run protect.
We might see both run defenses tested in this game, as rookie Dameon Pierce has been getting more work for the Texans with each passing week. That may be Houston’s best bet, as Davis Mills hasn’t put together two solid halves of football in any game this season.
It’s tough to envision Mills playing as well as he did against the Chargers last season, though LA should try to control time of possession if they don’t want to risk Mills beating a banged up defense. The Chargers are still well positioned to pull this one out – it just might be too close for comfort.
- The Chargers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after a double-digit home loss. Consistently inconsistent, it’s tough to see the Chargers dropping three straight even with their injuries
- The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against AFC opponents. Houston has managed a few surprises dating back to last season, including that upset of the Chargers
- The over is 4-0 in the Texans’ last 4 games after a loss. Houston’s offense has its moments, though those moments have been few and far between compared to late last season
Los Angeles Chargers Injuries: QB Justin Herbert should start but continues to play through a rib injury. LT Rashawn Slater will miss the rest of the season with a ruptured biceps tendon. WR Jalen Guyton is out for the season with a torn ACL. DE Joey Bosa is week-to-week with a “significant” groin injury. WR Keenan Allen is questionable after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. CB J.C. Jackson (ankle) and C Corey Linsley (knee) are both questionable after missing Week 3.
Houston Texans Injuries: Center Justin Britt remains out on the non-football illness list due to personal reasons. Tight end Brevin Jordan is questionable after missing Week 3 with an ankle injury.
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Chargers vs. Texans below.
Chargers Run Game vs. Texans Run Defense
The Texans knew the Bears were running the ball this past weekend and still had a hard time stopping them. Even with David Montgomery suffering an early injury, Chicago totaled 281 yards on the ground. Khalil Herbert ran for 157 yards and two touchdowns himself. Houston also allowed Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams to post efficient games earlier in the season.
This is a perfect opportunity for Austin Ekeler and Sony Michel to carry the weight of the offense for the Chargers. While offensive line injuries could make running the ball more difficult, this defense doesn’t seem capable of containing any decent rushing attack.
Davis Mills vs. Chargers Secondary
Davis Mills had one of the best games of his young career against the Chargers last season. LA upgraded the secondary by adding J.C. Jackson, but Jackson’s status is up in the air due to an injury.
As much as the run game will be featured, the Texans’ chances of winning probably hinge on Mills taking a step forward after two rough games. After holding up well against Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ secondary missed Jackson against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. If Jackson can’t play, Mills needs to do what he did last season and capitalize.