Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (10/16/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

The 4-1 Minnesota Vikings face the 3-2 Miami Dolphins this Sunday at 1:00pm ET in Miami, Florida. Defeating the Chicago Bears last week by a score of 29-22, the Vikings will be a tough opponent against a banged-up Dolphins team that lost 40-17 to the New York Jets. With Fins’ third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson slated to start, this will most certainly be an interesting one. Let’s take a look at the odds, preview, injuries, key matchups and depth charts to see who has the advantage in this one. 

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins Odds

The Miami Dolphins are +3.5 home underdogs to the -3.5 road favorite Minnessota Vikings. Minnesota is -180 on the moneyline to the Dolphins are +150 line. The over/under for the game is set at 45.5. 

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins Preview & Prediction

On the first offensive play for the Dolphins in their game against the Jets last Sunday, back-up quarterback Teddy Bridgewater got sacked for a safety by rookie Sauce Gardner and suffered a concussion. Bridgewater was replaced by rookie QB Skylar Thompson, KSU’s former fifth year QB, who turned the ball over twice in a close-game that easily got out of hand in the fourth quarter due to said turnovers. The Dolphins’ 40-17 loss was the first loss to the Jets in more than two seasons and it was a demoralizing one to say the least. Now, the Dolphins hope to rebound against a streaky Minnesota Vikings team.

The Vikings were up 21-10 at half against perhaps the worst passing team in the league in the Chicago Bears last week. While Minnesota got away with a 29-22 victory, this is the second week in a row in which the Vikings have squandered a big lead, only to pull away in the final minutes of the fourth. Justin Jefferson is back to being Justin Jefferson though, and the offense is hitting on all cylinders, averaging 26.4 points per game. On the other hand, the Vikings defense has looked mediocre as of late, giving up 71 points to the Lions, Saints, and Bears combined. 

With Skylar Thompson set to get his first career start, it’s hard to imagine what this Miami offense will look like. Last week, the Dolphins ran the ball often and Raheem Mostert came to play, putting up 113 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. With LT and offensive line anchor Terron Armstead leaving early due to injury, Thomspon was hard-pressed, which led to limited action going to Miami’s explosive receiving core albeit Tyreek Hill was limited. With Armstead questionable to play, look for McDaniel to run the ball similar to last week with the seventh-round rookie returning under center. 

With the Vikings defense allowing 120.4 rush yards per game, the Dolphins should be able to find the endzone more times than last week. With the return of star-corner Xavien Howard as well, this Miami defense may be able to slow Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ high-scoring offense that has had issues closing games, especially against sub-par quarterbacks on under .500 teams. Facing a 3-2 Dolphins team with a stingy defense, I expect this game to finish within three-points with the game decided in the final two minutes. 

Prediction: Dolphins cover +3.5

Betting Trends

• Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 6
• Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

Key Injuries

Miami Dolphins Injuries:

-QB T. Tagovailoa (OUT)

-CB Byron Jones (OUT)

-LT Terron Armstead (Questionable)

-CB Xavien Howard (Questionable)

Minnesota Vikings Injuries:

-LB Za’Darius Smith (Questionable) 

Key Matchups

Vikings Receivers versus Dolphins’ Secondary
The Dolphins’ secondary looked lost without Xavien Howard on the field last week. While Kader Kohou has shined in every game except last week’s against the Jets, former first round pick Noah Igbinoghene is nothing short of a bust. With Xavien Howard back though, Justin Jefferson faces a secondary that is still incomplete with Byron Jones remaining on the PUP list for at least another week. Safe to say the Vikings receiving core has the advantage in this one.

Skylar Thompson versus the Vikings Defense 
The Vikings defense is allowing 227.4 passing yards per game. While Skylar Thompson doesn’t elicit the confidence that Tua Tagovailoa would, he looked half-decent with a seemingly non-existent offensive line. The Vikings will have an overwhelming advantage if LT Terron Armstead is out, but if Armstead plays, look for Thompson to improve on his dismal showing last week.

Vikings Depth Chart

QB: Kirk Cousins
RB1: Dalvin Cook
RB2: Alexander Mattison
LWR: Justin Jefferson
RWR: KJ Osborne
SWR: Adam Thielen
TE1: Irv Smith Jr.

Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Raheem Mostert
RB2: Chase Edmunds
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Cedrick Wilson
SWR: Tyreek Hill
TE1: Mike Gesicki