New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Preview (10/2/2022): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart
The Patriots are in trouble.
They already were playing poorly and now have suffered an injury to their starting quarterback. Mac Jones is out for likely a few weeks. In steps career backup Brian Hoyer, who may hand the job off to Western Kentucky superstar Bailey Zappe in the future.
To make matters worse, the Patriots walk into one of the more hostile situations in the NFL – playing at Lambeau field.
It’s unlikely they beat Aaron Rodgers. But, there may be a situation where the Patriots can cover a big spread.
Let’s dive in. Read on for our New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers predictions and picks, alongside the betting odds, injuries, and depth charts.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Surprisingly, the line is moving the Patriots way.
The line was at Green Bay -11 after the Jones injury news broke, but has been bet underneath 10 at many books.
I think this money is worth following.
The total is dropping, too, down to 40 at some books. That gives more of an edge to the large road underdog.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Prediction
The Packers tried to re-vamp their linebacking core in the offseason, but it isn’t exactly working. The Packers rank 32nd in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Rush DVOA metric through three weeks. They’re also a bottom-10 team in both Rush EPA per play allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Part of that is scheme. The Packers finished 30th in the NFL in average box count last season while ranking sixth in using six-plus defensive backs. The other part is that the defensive line just isn’t that loaded.
The Patriots are going to love that. Their offensive line is third in the league in both adjusted line yards and PFF’s run-blocking grades. They have two competent backs in Damien Harris and Rhomandre Stevenson, two of the best yards-after-contact running backs in the NFL. New England currently ranks first in Rush Offense DVOA.
This is set up perfectly for the Patriots to cover a huge spread. Coach Bill Belichick will have Brian Hoyer hand the ball off on 80% of plays and the Patriots should move the chains enough to keep Rodgers on the sideline. It’ll be hard to cover a 10-point spread when you have the ball for a third of the game.
Moreover, how effective can Rodgers be? His wide receiver core is in shambles. New England is thin at cornerback but has some of the best safety depth in the league. While Rodgers will target Aaron Jones a lot, New England should cover him alright with Kyle Dugger and Ju’Whaun Bentley.
Give me the Patriots to ground-and-pound their way to a big cover.
- Bill Belichick is 30-17-2 ATS as an underdog
- Bill Belichick is 6-2 ATS as a six-or-more point underdog
- Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS as an underdog coming off a loss
- NFL Road Underdogs went 7-1 ATS in Week 3
Green Bay Packers team Injuries: WR Allen Lazard (Ankle) Q, OT David Bakhtiari (Knee) Q, G Elgton Jenkins (Knee) Q, CB Jaire Alexander (Groin) Q, RB AJ Dillon (Groin) Q
New England Patriots Team Injuries: QB Mac Jones (Ankle) D, WR Jakobi Meyers (Knee) Q
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers below.
Green Bay’s Second-Level Defense vs New England’s Running Back
I feel pretty confident that Stevenson and Harris will follow the Patriots’ offensive line right through Green Bay’s defensive line.
The question is how many explosive plays can they get? Can Green Bay’s linebackers and defensive backs – of which there are many – tackle effectively avoid yards after contact?
The Packers are 25th in PFF’s Tackling grades and Stevenson is sixth among NFL running backs in yards after contact per rush attempt. So, I’m doubtful.
But this matchup could be the difference in this game.