After a disappointing loss to the New York Giants in London last week, the Green Bay Packers (3-2) look to rebound when they host the New York Jets (3-2) at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday, October 16 at Lambeau Field. The Jets are coming off an impressive win against the Dolphins and are above .500 for the first time since October 8, 2017, when they were also 3-2. Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Jets vs. Packers matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.
New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
The Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites with moneyline odds around -350 at various sportsbooks. In the early action, about two-thirds of the money is coming in on the Jets with the points while nearly 80% of money is being bet on the Packers moneyline. The over/under opened at 44 and has moved up to 45.5, with over 60% of money being bet on the over.
New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
The Jets have shown encouraging signs of moving in the right direction this season. Their three wins may not have come against the toughest competition — the Browns, Steelers and the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB – but three wins are three wins. Those are games the Jets likely would not have won over the last year or two. For the most part, their young players are living up to or exceeding expectations. They have drafted seven players in the top 36 picks over the last two drafts, and the only one that doesn’t look like a surefire long-term starter so far is QB Zach Wilson.
Wilson has led the Jets to a 2-0 record since returning from a preseason knee injury, but he hasn’t exactly looked great in doing so. He has completed just 56.1% of his passes and has thrown two interceptions to just one touchdown, although he has also scored once on the ground and he caught a touchdown pass on a trick play. We will learn a lot more about Wilson this week as he faces a tough test against the Packers’ second-ranked passing defense.
Despite the positive signs with the Jets, this game sets up as a perfect bounce-back opportunity for the Packers after the perplexing loss to the Giants last week. The Packers are dominant at home, having gone 16-2 in their last 18 home games, and the Jets have not won at Lambeau since 2006. Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers has not lost back-to-back games since 2018 – that’s 57 straight games without consecutive defeats. It’s generally not a good strategy to bet against Aaron Rodgers at home coming off a loss.
Before the season, if you told me the Jets would only be a touchdown dog at Lambeau, I would have laughed at you and bet the house on the Packers (figuratively – don’t actually bet your house, or anything else you can’t afford to lose). But with the Jets showing signs of life and the Packers not seeming like themselves, it doesn’t look nearly as crazy.
I would be hesitant to lay the points in this one, but I also would not put my money on the Jets to cover. While my official pick is the Jets +7.5, I would stay away from the spread in this one. Instead, I would focus on betting the over in this matchup, which has hit in 13 of the Jets’ last 19 games, and four of the last six between these teams. Expect a scorched earth performance from Angry Rodgers and the Jets’ offense to put up enough points to hit the over.
My prediction: Green Bay wins 27-21, Jets cover, over 45.5
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
- Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight-up loss.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in the Jets’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-6 in the Jets’ last 19 games overall.
- The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams, and the over is 4-1-1 in the last six.
New York Jets Injuries: DE Carl Lawson (Q – ankle), LB C.J. Mosley (Q – hip), OT Duane Brown (Q – shoulder), DE Jermaine Johnson (Q – ankle), LB Quincy Williams (Q – ankle)
Green Bay Packers Injuries: QB Aaron Rodgers (Q – right thumb), OT David Bakhtiari (Q – knee), G Elgton Jenkins (Q – knee), LB Tipa Galeai (Q – hamstring), WR Christian Watson (Q – hamstring), DL Devonte Wyatt (Q – quadricep)
Here is the official injury report for both teams after Wednesday’s practice:
First Packers-Jets injury report: pic.twitter.com/YY6PgdlbfE
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) October 12, 2022
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers below.
Jets RB Breece Hall vs. Packers’ run defense
The Jets’ rookie running back exploded last week against the Dolphins for 197 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. After a relatively slow start, Hall has started to look like the top running back from the 2022 draft that he was hailed to be. He has at least 17 carries and 20 touches in each of the last two games, which not so coincidentally coincides with the two games Wilson has played. The Jets are leaning on the ground game to take some pressure off the sophomore signal caller, and they are likely to continue that against the Packers, who have a below average run defense (21st) and an excellent pass defense (2nd).
If the Jets fall behind early, will they stay committed to the rushing attack? Pass-catching back Michael Carter might see more action in that scenario, but Hall has seen his snap share increase each of the last three weeks and he is getting 13.6% of the team’s targets compared to Carter’s 9.8%. He is a true three-down back that will feature heavily in New York’s game plan, and the Packers need to focus on shutting him down.
Packers’ offensive line vs. Jets’ pass rush
The Packers’ offensive line has been struggling so far this season. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is not yet back to 100% in his recovery from a torn ACL and has been rotating with backup Yosh Nijman to manage his snap count. After missing the first two games of the season, Bakhtiari has 56% and 40% snap shares in two of the three games he’s played. He got blown up by Giants rookie defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux on the final play of the game last week.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 9, 2022
The Jets’ defensive line is one of the strengths of its team, and they have been getting plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. They generate pressure (sacks, hurries or knockdowns) on opposing QBs on 28.9% of dropbacks (4th in the league), and they do it primarily with their front four, as they blitz at the fourth lowest rate in the league (15.6%). Generating pressure on Rodgers without blitzing is critical to disrupting the four-time MVP. The Jets have a mismatch on this side of the line of scrimmage, and capitalizing on that will go a long way in determining the outcome of this matchup.