NFL Betting Prediction For Eagles vs. Colts (11/20/2022)

One week ago, the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) were the class of the NFL as the last remaining undefeated team, while the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) were one of the league’s more disappointing teams and had just fired their head coach Frank Reich. Now the Eagles are facing some questions after dropping their first game to the double-digit underdog Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football, while the Colts have reason for optimism after winning their first game under interim coach Jeff Saturday. Those narratives will either intensify or fizzle after the Eagles visit the Colts on Sunday, November 20 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Eagles vs. Colts matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

Despite the loss to the Commanders, the Eagles still opened as more than a touchdown favorite on the road with a -7.5 opening line, but that number quickly crossed the key 7-point threshold and moved to -6.5. Bettors were backing the Colts early in the week, as nearly 80% of the public handle was on the home team on Tuesday, but money has been coming in heavily on the Eagles since then and the overall split is now closer to 60/40. The public is taking the points but not the moneyline, as roughly 80% of the money is on the Eagles’ moneyline at -285.

The over/under for this matchup opened at 44 and has inched up to 44.5. Approximately 70% of the early money was on the under, but it’s now moving in the direction of the over. This matchup features two of the top 11 scoring defenses this season and two of the top 11 in team defense DVOA. Combine that with the Colts’ 30th ranked scoring offense and 32nd ranked offense in DVOA and it’s not surprising to see the public betting the under.

The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 25.5-19.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction

If you just look at the numbers on these teams’ seasons so far, it would be very difficult to bet against the Eagles. But things change quickly in the NFL, and when you look at the recent narratives for these teams, it becomes more complicated to handicap this matchup.

Will the narrative from last week continue for each of these teams? Will the Eagles bounce back from their first loss of the season, and we’ll look back at that Commanders game as just a blip in an otherwise dominant season? Or will the Eagles’ weak run defense and inability to get off the field on 3rd downs continue to be exposed? Are the Colts turning things around and building momentum under Saturday? Or will we look back on last week’s win and attribute it more to an emotional edge they might have had after the coaching change? We have to consider both possibilities when picking this game, and the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle.

The Commanders, and to some extent the Texans the previous week, have shown the league a blueprint for competing with the Eagles. Run the ball, control the time of possession and keep the Eagles’ high-flying offense off the field. Can the Colts do that with their 28th ranked rushing offense (31st in DVOA)? Well the Commanders and Texans aren’t much better at 20th and 26th, respectively (25th and 26th respectively in rushing DVOA). And as impressive as rookies Brian Robinson Jr. and Dameon Pierce have looked for their respective teams, a healthy Jonathan Taylor is in a whole different class of running back. Taylor had his best game since week 1 last week, rushing 22 times for 147 yards (6.68 per carry). So yeah, the Colts should be able to run the ball effectively on the Eagles, who are 28th in rushing defense DVOA.

Even if the Colts can establish the run, that won’t necessarily be enough for them to execute a similar game plan to the Texans and Commanders. Everything went wrong for the Eagles last week, especially in the turnover department, where they lost the turnover battle for the first time this season and committed more turnovers in one game (four) than the previous eight games combined (three). They still lead the league with a +13 turnover differential, while the Colts have the second-worst differential at -9. The Eagles were trending towards having one of the best turnover differential seasons ever before last week, so some regression to the mean was expected. What would not be expected is if the Eagles lost the turnover battle for the second consecutive week.

Before last week’s games, the Eagles were expected to be double-digit favorites in this game for the fourth consecutive week. Going from that to less than a touchdown favorite based on the outcomes of last week seems like an overreaction to me. With turnovers presumably normalizing, the Eagles should be able to return to their previous form this week, even if they struggle to slow down Jonathan Taylor. For that reason, I’m picking the Eagles and laying the 6.5 in this game.

I am also taking the over on 44.5. The Eagles scored 21 points last week despite only running 46 plays and possessing the ball for less than 20 minutes. They have the 3rd highest scoring offense in the league and should have no problem moving the ball against the Colts’ defense. The Colts’ running game should be able to create enough scoring opportunities for them as well.

My Prediction: Eagles win 27-20, Eagles cover, Over 44.5 total points

Betting Trends

• Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games
• Eagles are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home
• Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win
• The Over is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last four games
• The Under is 13-3 in the Colts’ last 16 games overall and 5-1 in their last six home games
• The Over is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last seven games vs. a team with a losing record, but the Under is 5-0 in the Colts’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record (something has got to give!)
• The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts

Key Injuries

Philadelphia Eagles Injuries: WR A.J. Brown (Q – ankle), WR DeVonta Smith (Q – knee), WR/KR Britain Covey (Q – thigh), DT Fletcher Cox (Q – foot), C Jason Kelce (Q – ankle), OLB Haason Redick (Q – thigh), CB Josh Jobe (Q – thigh), TE Tyree Jackson (Q – knee), CB Avonte Maddox (O – hamstring), TE Dallas Goedert (O – shoulder), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (O – ), DT Jordan Davis (O – ankle), DE Derek Barnett (O – knee)

Indianapolis Colts Injuries: DT DeForest Bucker (Q – neck), CB Kenny Moore (Q – illness), C Ryan Kelly (Q – knee)< DE Yannick Ngakoue (Q – back), TE Jelani Woods (Q – shoulder), RB Deon Jackson (Q – knee), DE Kwity Paye (Q – ankle), DE Tyquan Lewis (O – knee), LB Shaquille Leonard (O – back/ankle),

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts below.

Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Eagles’ run defense

As discussed above, the Eagles’ run defense has been their Achilles heel for much of the season, but especially the last two weeks. While they only allowed 3.1 yards per carry to the Commanders, they were completely ineffective at stopping the run on 3rd and short. The Commanders converted 60% of their third downs including 75% with four or fewer yards to go and 7/8 when running the ball in those situations. The Commanders’ run game also helped them stay ahead of the chains, as 12 of their 20 3rd down situations were 3rd and short (four yards or fewer to go).

The Eagles’ run defense got significantly weaker when mammoth rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis suffered a high ankle sprain in week eight against the Steelers. They also lost another piece along the interior of their defensive line when reserve tackle Marlon Tuipulotu unexpectedly went on injured reserve this week. The team brought in veteran nose tackle Linval Joseph to try to plug these holes (pun intended!). Joseph reportedly will be ready to play right away.

Linval Joseph believes he is ready to play and could make his Eagles’ debut Sunday vs. the Colts. https://t.co/1hyzlgQIbC

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 16, 2022

Even when Jonathan Taylor has been healthy, the Colts’ rushing attack has been mostly ineffective this season. It will be very interesting to see if they can replicate last week’s resurgent performance by Taylor against this struggling Eagles’ run defense. If they do, they will be able to shorten the game, win the time of possession battle, and limit the opportunities for the Eagles’ offense, just like the Texans and Commanders. The outcome of this matchup will go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.

Eagles’ rushing attack vs. Colts’ run defense

The Eagles have gotten themselves into trouble when they fail to establish the run, and they’ve been at their best when they use the run to set up the pass and to wear down the defense. Tight end Dallas Goedert has been their most effective player at running screen plays, which helps to supplement the running game. With Goedert now on injured reserve, it becomes even more important for them to run the ball effectively. It will also help them keep the defense off the field, which is especially important after the defense was on the field for over 40 minutes last week and is playing on a short week.

Fletcher Cox was asked about playing 70 snaps vs. Washington, the most he's played in four seasons, and how he felt two days later:

"You want the truth? I feel like shit. It ain't a good feeling, but you do what you need to do to win the game. Seventy snaps in 70 snaps." https://t.co/xWWIqyDifD

— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) November 16, 2022

The Colts’ defense has been strong against the run, ranking 10th in yards allowed per game, 2nd in yards per carry allowed, and 4th in run defense DVOA. They have two strong run-stuffing defensive tackles in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. Buckner popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a neck injury, which bears monitoring.

Eagles’ wide receivers vs. Colts’ secondary

Wide receiver A.J. Brown had his quietest game as an Eagle last week, with just one catch for seven yards on four targets. He also bobbled a deep pass that he normally catches, which led to an interception. He appeared to suffer an injury early in the game which may have limited him, and he showed up on Wednesday’s estimated injury report with an ankle injury.

Brown figures to draw the primary coverage from the Colts’ top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore. In his age 32 season, the former Defensive Player of the Year and two-time first-team All-Pro may not be what he once was, but he has still been very effective this season, allowing 6.1 yards per target and a 63.9 passer rating when targeted, his lowest marks since his 2019 DPOY campaign.

The Eagles should be able to exploit the Colts other starting cornerback, Kenny Moore, who has been having the worst season of his career. A pro bowl selection last year, Moore is allowing 8.4 yards per target, 13.1 yards per completion, and a 108.7 passer rating when targeted this season – all the worst marks of his six-year career. He will most likely be matched up primarily with Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Advantage goes to the Eagles in that matchup.

Moore is also dealing with an illness this week that has him questionable for the game. If he can’t go, this becomes an even bigger advantage for the Eagles to exploit.

The Eagles’ wide receivers will be relied upon heavily in this game with Goedert out and the Colts possessing a strong run defense. Speedy slot receiver Quez Watkins may be the biggest beneficiary of Goedert’s absence and he has a chance to make a big play every time he touches the ball.

Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB1: Miles Sanders
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
LWR: A.J. Brown
SWR: Quez Watkins
RWR: DeVonta Smith
TE1: Dallas Goedert

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

QB: Matt Ryan
RB1: Jonathan Taylor
RB2: Deon Jackson
RWR: Michael Pittman
SWR: Parris Campbell
LWR: Alec Pierce
TE1: Mo Alie-Cox