The NFL makes its Saturday return with an exciting two game slate. The main event for Saturday features the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars as they battle it out for the divisional title and a berth into the NFL playoffs. The regression monster loomed large over the Titans and hit them at the worst time possible. Especially after Ryan Tannehill’s injury. Can the Jags take advantage and secure the big win?
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
This was once a game that was deemed to be way closer than it looks to be now, especially in the Titans favor. After injuries and recent levels of play, oddsmakers have now flipped the script and set the Jags as the favorite. Bettors are in agreement, taking the Jags all the way up to as high as -6.5. This comes as little surprise as they have been white hot, and a clear top-10 team in EPA as well as having home field advantage.
As for the total, points are expected to come at a premium as oddsmakers opened the total as a lowly 39.5. Bettors are in slight agreement, taking the under down to 39 with indication that it will continue to drop. Both units come in with key defensive advantages while the Titans offense takes a massive drop off in production with question marks at quarterback. Whether it is Josh Dobbs or Malik Willis, expect this offense to continue to regress.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
The Pick: Under 39.5
In what is the biggest game of the season for these two squads, I believe it will be a defensive slugfest that will decide who goes on to the playoffs. It’s a battle of contrasting defenses that are capable of shutting down each other’s offensive strengths.
The Jags have been a welcoming surprise this season and have deserved every ounce of success that they have had at this point. The issue is their success was not predicated on their defensive play. Lucky for us, they do excel at stopping the run by ranking above average in Def Rush DVOA. This will be the key metric to watch on their end as the Titans are expected to go run heavy with Derrick Henry in the backfield.
The Titans going run heavy plays perfectly for our under, constantly draining the clock throughout the game. I would be hard pressed to see them air it out with either Dobbs or Willis in their biggest game of the year. Even with Henry, the Titans run game has faltered by finishing the season ranked below average in Rush DVOA.
- Under is 4-0 in Titans last four Saturday games
- Under is 4-0 in Jags last four games against a team with a losing road record
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups in Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans Injuries: Ryan Tannehill (O), Jeffery Simmons (O), Bud Dupree (O), Denico Autry (D), Treylon Burks (Q)
Jacksonville Jaguars Injuries: Ross Matiscik (Q), Trevor Lawrence (P)
Can the Titans contain the Jags balanced offensive attack?
Jags dual threat ability vs Titans defense
I use the term dual threat ability softly as the Jags ground game faltered at the end of the season while their pass game has rounded out to one of the best metrics in football. They will find little success on the ground once again as the Titans rush defense is elite.
That leaves the Jags pass attack to find success, an area of success that Lawrence should be able to exploit as the Titans coverage is brutally bad. Although he won’t be without pressure as the Titans defensive line should generate a push back and limit the amount of success Lawrence will find through the air.
Take the under at no lower than 38 in what will be a defensive slugfest that decides who makes it to the playoffs.