Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview (12/4/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

Two division leaders collide in week 13 as the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) host the Tennessee Titans (7-4) on Sunday, December 4 at 1 p.m. EST at Lincoln Financial Field. The Titans are looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to the Bengals last week, while the Eagles are coming off a record-breaking performance on the ground in a win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

The Eagles rushed for a whopping 363 yards in the game, which was the second most in franchise history and the most since 1948. Jalen Hurts’ 157 rushing yards was a new franchise mark for a quarterback and the fifth-most all-time by a quarterback (including playoffs). It’s unlikely the Eagles can duplicate that performance against the stout Titans’ run defense. It’s more likely that we see a big game from WR A.J. Brown in his first game against his former team. The Titans are allowing the second-most passing yards in the league so far this season.

Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Titans vs. Eagles matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds

The Eagles opened as 5.5-point favorites at home and that line has held steady early in the week. Some sportsbooks had the Eagles at -6.5 or -6 as the opening line, but it has settled in across the board at -5.5. The Eagles are favored at -240 on the moneyline while the Titans have +200 odds. The public is backing the underdog in this matchup, as over 70% of the early money is on the Titans with the points and just over half of the money is on the Titans’ moneyline. With that action, there is a chance the line moves slightly in the Titans’ direction, but I wouldn’t expect much movement.

The over/under for this matchup opened at 44.5 and has stayed at that number early in the week. The public is favoring the under with over 70% of the money on roughly 30% of the bets, so there are some big bets being placed on the under. If that continues, we could see some downward movement.

The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 25-19.5.

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

There will be some interesting matchups of both strength on strength and strength against weakness in this game. The Eagles boast the 3rd best rushing attack on a per-game basis and the best in terms of DVOA, while the Titans feature the 3rd-best rushing defense and the best in terms of DVOA. Will the Eagles be able to establish the run given the tough matchup, or will it be up to Jalen Hurts to exploit the Titans’ 31st ranked passing defense?

On the other side of the ball, the Titans love to run the ball with Derrick Henry, arguably still the best running back in the game, and they have the 12th best rushing attack in the league. The Eagles have struggled to stop the run over the last four weeks and their run defense ranks 20th in the league over that span. Can the Eagles slow down Henry enough to force Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill to attack them through the air? That would work to the advantage of the Eagles, who bring the league’s 2nd-ranked passing defense into a matchup with the Titans’ 29th ranked air attack.

The ability of the Titans to stop the pass and the Eagles to stop the run are the pivotal factors influencing this matchup. The Eagles have shown that they can win through the air just as effectively as they can on the ground. The Titans have not shown the same versatility on offense, and while the Eagles have struggled against the run, they have been able to overcome that in all but one game this season. There is also a possibility that rookie nose tackle Jordan Davis returns from an ankle injury in this game and helps to bolster their run defense.

Eagles have opened the 21 day practice window for Jordan Davis. He could return Sunday.

Just in time to face Derrick Henry, the second leading rusher in NFL. He has the most broken tackles this year. pic.twitter.com/vVReC9rf8d

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 30, 2022

I feel more confident in the Eagles finding ways to slow down the run or to overcome a big game by Derrick Henry than I do in the Titans finding ways to slow down A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and the Eagles’ passing attack, even without Dallas Goedert. And if the Eagles manage to build an early lead, I don’t think the Titans have the firepower offensively to keep up with them. So I am fading the public and laying the 5.5 with the Eagles. That said, there is a good enough chance that the Titans can execute a similar game plan to what the Commanders did to beat the Eagles, so the best value bet in this game is probably the Titans’ moneyline.

I am staying away from betting the total in this game, but if I had to pick I would bet the under. The Eagles’ offense has been most explosive this year when it can establish the run and use that to set up the pass. That will be tough to do against this Titans’ run defense, so I don’t see the Eagles scoring enough points to drive the over. And if the Titans’ pull off the upset, it will be by slowing down the pace, controlling the ball and limiting the number of possessions, all of which favors the under.

My Prediction: Eagles win 23-17, Eagles cover, under 44.5 points

Betting Trends

• The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 8-1 in their last nine games overall.
• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
• The Under is 5-1 in the Titans’ last six games vs. a team with a winning record, and the Under is 7-1 in the Titans’ last eight games overall.
• The over is 10-1 in the Eagles’ last 11 home games, and the Over is 5-1 in their last six games overall.
• The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.
• The Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.

Key Injuries

Tennessee Titans Injuries: DL Denico Autry (Q – knee), DL Jeffery Simmons (Q – ankle), CB Kristian Fulton (Q – hamstring), K Randy Bullock (Q – calf), CB Caleb Farley (O – back), CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (O – hamstring), LB Zach Cunningham (O – elbow), LB Harold Landry (O – knee), OT Taylor Lewan (O – knee)

Philadelphia Eagles Injuries: DT Jordan Davis (Q – ankle), S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (O – lacerated kidney), CB Avonte Maddox (O – hamstring), TE Dallas Goedert (O – shoulder), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (O – knee), DE Derek Barnett (O – knee)

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles below.

Titans RB Derrick Henry vs. Eagles’ run defense

As noted above, the Eagles’ run defense has been their Achilles heel for much of the season, and especially over the last four weeks. The Houston Texans kept the game much closer than it should have been, largely because rookie running back Dameon Pierce gashed them for 139 yards on over five yards per carry. The Washington Commanders dealt them their first loss by using the run game to control the ball, dominate time of possession, convert a high percentage of third downs (60%), and keep the Eagles’ offense off the field. That has clearly been shown to be the recipe for beating the Birds.

Now they face the tall task of slowing down Derrick Henry, the league’s 2nd leading rusher and league leader in broken tackles and yards after contact. The Titans are tied with the Eagles as the third run-heaviest team in the league with roughly a 54/46 run/pass ratio, and Henry leads the league in rushing attempts and total touches, so you can be sure the Eagles will see a heavy dose of Henry.

If Henry can consistently keep the Titans offense ahead of the chains and converting 3rd downs at a high rate, then Tennessee can execute a similar game plan to the one the Commanders used to beat the Eagles. But if the Eagles can slow him down and put the ball in Ryan Tannehill’s hands, they stand a much better chance in this matchup.

Eagles’ WRs vs. Titans’ cornerbacks

A big storyline to watch in this game is how the Eagles attack the Titans’ defense. While Philadelphia is one of the run-heaviest teams in the league (partially because of Jalen Hurts’ rushing attempts from the QB spot), they have shown balance offensively and have also won games attacking primarily through the air (for example against the Vikings, Commanders the first time, and the Steelers). They rank 1st in rushing offense DVOA and 6th in passing DVOA, so despite the excellent numbers on the ground, their passing attack can be just as dangerous.

The Titans bring the best run defense in the league into this matchup. They want to stop the run first to make the offense one-dimensional, then put pressure on the quarterback with their pass rush. The Eagles should still try to establish the run to slow down the pass rush and keep the defense honest, but they are going to do most of their damage through the air.

The Titans have a talented but inexperienced set of cornerbacks led by 2020 35th overall pick Kristian Fulton (2021 1st round pick Caleb Farley is probably the best of the bunch, but he is out for the season with a herniated disc). The most vulnerable member of the secondary is probably rookie 2nd round pick Roger McCreary, who is allowing 7.8 yards per target and a 104.9 opposing passer rating when targeted.

McCreary is likely to draw the primary coverage on DeVonta Smith, who could be poised for a big game in that matchup. But the narrative argument would be for A.J. Brown to have the big game against his former team.

Tennessee Titans Depth Chart

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB1: Derrick Henry
RB2: Dontrell Hilliard
RWR: Robert Woods
SWR: Treylon Burks
LWR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TE1: Austin Hooper

Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB1: Miles Sanders
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
LWR: A.J. Brown
SWR: Quez Watkins
RWR: DeVonta Smith
TE1: Jack Stoll