The 1-8-1 Houston Texans travel to Hard Rock stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida to take on the 7-3 AFC East leading Miami Dolphins. With odd-makers expecting this game to get out of hand early, can the Dolphins extend their streak under Tua to 8-0? Can Kyle Allen prove he’s the best starting quarterback for the Texans moving forward? Let’s take a look at the odds, preview, prediction, injuries, key matchup, and depth charts to see if this colossal spread is worth betting on.
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Odds
The Miami Dolphins are -12.5 point favorites over the +12.5 Houston Texans with the money-line a whopping -425 for the home team and +340 for the road underdogs. The over/under is set at 46.
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Preview & Prediction
The Texans caught the right team at the wrong time last week as their battle with the Washington Commanders ended up in another bad loss for the team. Losing 23-10, the Texans were stifled by a rejuvenated Washington Commanders defense, which picked off QB Davis Mills twice, returning one for a touchdown. Securing 5 sacks and 9 tackles for loss, there was little the Texans could do on offense as star running back Dameon Pierce was held to just 8 yards on 10 carries. If the Texans have any chance this week, it starts with getting a more productive week out of Pierce.
While the Miami Dolphins rested easy at 7-3 over their bye week, the team doesn’t have the luxury to take this game lightly with a tough road trip coming up and the Buffalo Bills biting at their AFC East lead. Defeating the Browns 39-17, the Dolphins finally hit on all cylinders as their defensive pass-rush woke up and secured 14 QB hits and 3 sacks on opposing QB Jacoby Brissett. Josh Boyer’s unit even held star RB Nick Chubb to just 63 rushing yards on 11 carries, despite the back averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game previously. With Tua emulating his Alabama-self, the Dolphins offense is exceptional and if paired with a consistent defense, this team could do some real damage down the stretch.
Though odds-makers have already decided who they’re picking to win this game, the real question remains whether a -12.5 or +12.5 point spread is worth betting on. Taking a look at the Texans, this team is frustratingly inconsistent when it comes to their level of play, especially from a betting standpoint. Covering the spread once in their last five games, the Texans were able to stick with the 7-0 Eagles (-14) until the second half in their 29-17 loss and lone cover in November. Facing a new double-digit spread, the Texans chances of covering hinge on new starting quarterback Kyle Allen’s decision-making and Dameon Pierce’s productivity. Against a pass-rush that finally seems to have found its formula for success, the Texans are definitely in for another long one.
Ranking third in total offense, the Miami Dolphins can put up points in a moment’s notice. Relying on the passing game to move down the field, head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense faces a Texans pass defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL. Despite Tua surging to MVP candidacy under McDaniel’s tenure, the old San Francisco run-game coordinator may be enticed to run the ball with Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert this week as the Texans run defense ranks dead last in the NFL. After adding Wilson at the trade deadline, the Dolphins have been able to run the ball far more effectively with the two-headed running back duo of Wilson and Mostert. Against the Browns, the duo combined for 184 yards and two touchdowns on only 25 carries. With a dangerous new dynamic added to their already stellar offense, the Miami Dolphins are a “pick your poison” team for the Texans defense.
The poison inflicted by the Miami offense this week will most likely be the run-game. Therefore, I will be betting on Jeff Wilson’s over and depending on the total, Raheem Mostert’s over as well (lines still pending). Depending on the value, I believe Wilson to score a TD is also a great play but I am more hesitant on a Mostert TD play unless there is significant + money value. I lean under on the total but will ultimately stay away from this spread, as I believe anything above 12 spread-wide is a trap especially in the NFL.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week
Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
-DE J. Martin (Q)
-TE P. Brown (Q)
-LB C. Kirksey (Q)
-C. J. McCray (Q)
-LT Terron Armstead (Q)
-QB T. Tagovailoa (P)
Dolphins Rushing Attack vs Texans Run Defense
The key area of attack for the Dolphins this week. will be the run game. Wilson should be able to keep up his impressive streak against a seemingly tired defensive line that allowed the Commanders’ offense 153 rush yards on 40 carries. The Dolphins’ run game is also key for under bettors as McDaniel will look to work this new dyanimic into the team’s offense.