Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (10/2/22): Odds, Predictions, Depth Chart

After opening their season with a win, Carson Wentz and the Commanders have floundered. Already, they’ll be trying to avoid a 1-3 start on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys have won two straight without Dak Prescott and will be looking to keep pace in the NFC East in what’s expected to be the last game without their quarterback.

Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and take a look at the odds ahead of Sunday’s matchup in Dallas.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds

The Cowboys enter as 3-point home favorites and sit at -170 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 42.5 points.

Back-to-back wins without Dak Prescott have kept the Cowboys favored in this one, and the biggest reason is Dan Quinn’s defense. It’s mildly surprising that Dallas is only favored by a field goal, even after a slow offensive start vs. the Giants. A defense that sacked Daniel Jones five times is facing a quarterback the Eagles just sacked nine times. That might be a recipe for disaster.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction

I already hinted at it – the big concern for the Commanders is how the offensive line will hold up against Dallas’ defensive front. Quinn is at the top of his game right now, shutting down the Bengals for all but one drive in Week 2 and drawing up plays that harassed Jones all night on Monday.

Washington’s offense looked like it was poised for at least a decent year in Weeks 1 and 2, but Wentz took nine sacks against the Eagles and couldn’t do anything as a result. The Commanders scored only six offensive points.

This game might play out like Monday’s did in New York. The Cowboys’ offense is still nothing to write home about with Cooper Rush at the helm, but he’s just capable enough to put together enough scoring drives along with a solid running game. If the defense plays like it did these last two weeks, that’s enough to beat the Commanders at home. The offense also might have some extra help, as Michael Gallup is close to a return and Dalton Schultz could play after missing Week 3.

Wentz threw seven touchdowns in his first two games, so it’s not impossible that Washington gets the offense moving through the air. Pass-protection just needs to be much better for that to work.

I’ll lean Cowboys -3 in what should be a close game, though I’d be more hesitant if the line moved further in Dallas’ direction. I’m more confident in u42.5 points. The Commanders’ defense hasn’t played well this season, but it did limit the damage to one quarter in the loss to the Eagles. Rush and co. probably won’t outperform the Eagles’ offense.

Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against NFC East opponents.
• The Cowboys are 6-0 against their last six opponents with a losing record.
• The under is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 home games. With the offense not as prolific as it was most of last season, defensive battles have become the norm for Dallas.

Key Injuries

Washington Commanders Injuries: Cornerback William Jackson III is questionable after missing Week 3 with a back injury. Center Chase Roullier is out long-term with a knee injury. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. will miss at least one more game after he was shot in the leg just before the season.

Dallas Cowboys Injuries: Quarterback Dak Prescott is set to miss at least one more game after thumb surgery. Tight end Dalton Schultz is questionable after missing Week 3 with a knee injury. Receiver Michael Gallup has a chance to make his season debut as he recovers from last season’s torn ACL. Tackle Tyron Smith remains out with a knee injury. Safety Jayron Kearse is questionable after missing two games with a knee injury.

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Commanders vs. Cowboys below.

Cowboys Pass-Rush vs. Commanders Offensive Line

This one qualifies as a mismatch. The Commanders’ line wasn’t considered a huge liability entering the season, even after losing Brandon Scherff, but it was overmatched by the Eagles’ defensive front in Week 3. With center Chase Roullier likely out for the season, the outlook against this Dan Quinn-led Cowboys defense isn’t great.

Micah Parsons has continued to thrive in year two, and Demarcus Lawrence is coming off a three-sack game. Washington can win this game if Carson Wentz stays on his feet. That will just be easier said than done.

Terry McLaurin vs. Trevon Diggs

Trevon Diggs has developed a reputation as a cornerback who gets turnovers but has a tendency to allow large chunks of yards. He did well to put that reputation to bed when he shut quieted Ja’Marr Chase in Week 2, and his track record against Terry McLaurin is great as well.

McLaurin was held without a catch on three targets against the Cowboys last December, and he posted 40 yards on three catches when they met again two weeks later. After McLaurin’s first 100-yard game of the season, he needs to finally break through against Diggs for the Commanders to have a serious chance at winning.

Washington Commanders Depth Chart

QB: Carson Wentz
RB1: Antonio Gibson
RB2: J.D. McKissic
RB3: Jonathan Williams
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas

Dallas Cowboys Depth Chart

QB: Cooper Rush
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott
RB2: Tony Pollard
RB3: Rico Dowdle
LWR: CeeDee Lamb
RWR: Michael Gallup
SWR: Noah Brown
TE1: Dalton Schultz