2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Power Rankings, Odds, Analysis

By Thomas Valentine | Jun 08, 2026, 10:26am

Everyone loves a good comeback story, and nothing sets the tone for a comeback like adversity. As is the case every year, NFL players suffer season-ending injuries or downturns in performance, and every year sees a player return from that sort of adversity.

The likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, and Micah Parsons are all bouncing back from season-ending injuries in 2025 that jilted their performances and brought their seasons to a standstill, but will they be in the running for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award?

2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Power Rankings

Patrick Mahomes – QB, KNC
Kyler Murray – QB, MIN
Jayden Daniels – QB, WSH
Malik Nabers – WR, NYG
Nick Bosa – EDGE, SFO
Micah Parsons – EDGE, GNB
Daniel Jones – QB, IND
Fred Warner – LB, SFO
Travis Hunter – WR/CB, JAC
Tucker Kraft – TE, GNB
George Kittle – TE, SFO
Garrett Wilson – WR, NYJ
Cam Skattebo – RB, NYG
Trey Hendrickson – EDGE, BAL
Quinshon Judkins – RB – CLE
Sam LaPorta – TE, DET
Tua Tagovailoa – QB, ATL
Geno Smith – QB, NYJ
Tank Dell – WR, HOU
Sauce Gardner – CB, IND
Brock Bowers – TE, LVR
J.J. McCarthy – QB, MIN
Odell Beckham Jr. – WR, NYG
Michael Penix Jr. – QB, ATL
Brandon Aiyuk – WR, SFO

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs, QB)

Comeback Player Odds:

One of the faces of the NFL is a natural favorite for the league’s comeback player of the year. After years of sustained success, Mahomes and the Chiefs wobbled in 2025. The Chiefs finished with a 6-10 record, missing the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era, and for the first time since 2014. The big storyline of the season, though, was Mahomes tearing his ACL and MCL.

Prior to his injury, Mahomes’ numbers were somewhat subdued, but he was still playing good football. His completion percentage was a career-low 62.5%, but Mahomes was seventh in EPA per play and sixth in total passing EPA. The Chiefs should be better in 2026, even if they didn’t improve their passing game too much. But Mahomes is Mahomes. Even if he doesn’t feature in Week 1, the best quarterback in the NFL is the clear favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year.

Kyler Murray (Minnesota Vikings, QB)

Comeback Player Odds:

The caveat here is that there’s no guarantee that Kyler Murray starts for the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings brought him in to compete with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, but the expectation is that Murray will win the job in training camp. In reality, that should be the direction the Vikings head in. Murray struggled at times with the Cardinals and often felt like he was unable to reach his full potential, but a fresh start with one of the best offensive-minded head coaches in the NFL, Kevin O’Connell, could give the former number one pick a new lease of life.

Murray completed 68.3% of his passes for 962 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions in his five starts in 2025, before a foot injury ruled him out for the rest of the season. The aggressiveness from his game had fallen away, with a career-low 6.0 yards per attempt, but putting him in the Vikings offense with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings means this might be the best offensive infrastructure Murray has ever had. A career-best season, one that could revitalise Murray, could be on the horizon.

Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders, QB)

Comeback Player Odds:

After arguably the best rookie season of all-time by a quarterback in 2024, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels came back down to earth with an abrupt crash in 2025. The former number two overall pick saw his completion percentage drop from 69.0% in 2024 to 60.6% in seven starts in 2025—in that time, the Commanders compiled a 2-5 record. In total, the Commanders finished with a 5-12 record. A far cry from their 12-5 record. Multiple injuries hampered Daniels’ momentum in 2025, and his 7.38% sack rate was 26th out of 37 quarterbacks.

Despite a rough sophomore season, the die isn’t cast on Daniels’ NFL career. If anything, a strong bounce-back season in 2026 is more than likely. The front office improved the offense, adding Chig Okonkwo, Antonio Williams, and Rachaad White in the offseason, and Daniels has too much talent to fall away. A strong year is on the cards, and that’ll put Daniels in the running for Comeback Player of the Year.

Malik Nabers (New York Giants, WR)

Comeback Player Odds:

Malik Nabers’ rookie season was electric. The former LSU receiver caught 109 passes for 1204 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024 and single-handedly made the Giants’ offense feel like one worth paying attention to. Big things were, and still are, expected of Nabers in his NFL career, but 2025 proved to be a significant bump in the road. Nabers caught 18 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns in four games before suffering a torn ACL and meniscus—a serious blow.

There’s some considerable doubt about Nabers current injury status. A slower-than-hoped recovery time from Nabers has put the start of the 2026 season in jeopardy for the former first-rounder, but if he’s on the field early, Nabers will continue to be the fulcrum of the Giants’ passing game. The state of the offense could hinge on his connection with second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart, whom he barely saw on the field in 2025.

Nick Bosa (San Francisco 49ers, EDGE)

Comeback Player Odds:

Nick Bosa was one of several major injuries to impact the San Francisco 49ers’ season in 2025, and the hole left by Bosa along the defensive line had a serious knock-on effect, even if the 49ers were able to finish with a 12-5 record and progress to the NFC Divisional Round. Bosa played in just three games in 2025, tallying 10 pressures, two sacks, and two forced fumbles before tearing his ACL for the second time in his career.

The 49ers’ defense struggled to consistently generate pressure without Bosa on the field in 2025, so having him rushing the passer in 2026 will be a welcome sight for 49ers’ fans. It’s been a while since a defensive player won the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award—that honor went to Chiefs’ safety Eric Berry in 2015—but if anyone could break that spell, it’s Bosa, who’s still one of the most talented edge rushers in the NFL.

Micah Parsons (Green Bay Packers, EDGE)

Comeback Player Odds:

Like Bosa, Micah Parsons is a force multiplier off the edge. One of the best players in the NFL, Parsons’ first season with the Green Bay Packers started incredibly well. His 79 pressures in 14 games were the seventh-most in the league among edge rushers, per PFF, and Parsons earned First-Team All-Pro honors for the third time in his NFL career. Like Bosa, though, his season ended prematurely after 14 games after a torn ACL in Week 15.

The Packers’ deep playoff aspirations were dashed without Parsons, losing 27-31 to the Bears in the NFC Wildcard Round. They’ll be back and contending in 2026, so long as Parsons is back early. A Week 1 return seems unattainable, but Parsons is reportedly targeting a mid-October return. That gives him nearly three-quarters of the 2026 NFL season to remind the league just how dominant he is.

Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts, QB)

Comeback Player Odds:

Had Daniel Jones’ 2025 season not ended prematurely, there’s every chance he would have ended the year as the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. Jones completed 68.0% of his passes for 3101 yards, 19 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while leading the Colts to an 8-5 record and quarterbacking a historically efficient offense through the first half of the season. His 51% success rate was fourth among quarterbacks, and Jones was eighth in total EPA.

A torn Achilles in Week 14 ended Jones’ season, and all but sealed a late-season collapse from the Colts that saw them lose their last seven games of the year to miss the playoffs with an 8-9 record. Jones was still rewarded with a two-year, $88 million extension from the Colts this offseason, an indication of their conviction that he can bounce back in 2026.

Fred Warner (San Francisco 49ers, LB)

Comeback Player Odds:

After four All-Pro selections, Fred Warner has earned the right to be called one of the greatest linebackers of all time. The former third-round pick has been an integral part of the 49ers’ defense over the last eight years, and that was no more evident than in the 2025 season when Warner played just six games after suffering a broken ankle.

The 49ers’ defense suffered, finishing 24th in EPA per play in 2025. Not having their leader in the middle of the defense, combined with the loss of Bosa and Mykel Williams, meant that the offense had to carry the 49ers to the playoffs. They did, but having a fully healthy Warner at the heart of the defense will go a long way in 2026. A fifth All-Pro selection is more than likely, and that could throw Warner into the conversation as a long-shot candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.

Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars WR/CB)

Comeback Player Odds:

A second-year pro winning Comeback Player of the Year seems like an odd thing to happen. Especially when they’ve only played seven career games. But Hunter was the second overall pick in 2024, a highly touted cornerback and wide receiver whom the Jaguars traded up to select. Hunter started to show flashes in 2025, including in an eight-catch, 101-yard, and a touchdown performance against the Rams—his final game of the season.

Hunter is expected to be a full-time cornerback in 2026 while playing part-time at wide receiver, which is likely the best use of his talents, but if Hunter can make a significant impact on both sides of the ball, there’s an outside chance he’ll be in the running to be NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

Tucker Kraft (Green Bay Packers, TE)

Comeback Player Odds:

Tucker Kraft was in the midst of a career year in 2025 before tearing his ACL in Week 9 against the Panthers. Up until that point, Kraft had caught 32 passes for 489 yards and six touchdowns, and was comfortably averaging career-highs in receptions (4.0) and receiving yards per game (61.1). His 2.27 yards per route run were also the second-highest among all tight ends in the 2025 season. The Packers’ passing game was reliant on Kraft.

In the first nine weeks of the season, the Packers were first in EPA per passing play—in large part due to Kraft’s ability to create explosive plays—but fell to fifth in the second half of the season. They were still an elite passing offense, but felt the shift of losing Kraft. He’ll aim to be back for the start of the 2026 season, and though it’s a long shot, a career-year for Kraft—just as he was on track for in 2025—would see him rightfully earn Comeback Player of the Year buzz.

Photo Credit: AP/Phelan M. Ebenhack