Best Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Parlay, Odds Today: MLB HR Bets (Wednesday, October 15)
The third game of the American League Championship Series takes place tonight, so let’s dive into my MLB home run predictions with only one game on tap for Wednesday, October 15. I’ve been shut out for the last two articles, but I’ll try to get on track here.
With that in mind, let’s get into our MLB playoff home run predictions for today.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Wednesday, Oct. 15)
Eugenio Suarez Odds Home Run Odds:
Let’s start with Eugenio Suarez, who slashed .228/.298/.526 with 49 home runs in 657 plate appearances this season. The veteran third baseman has struggled this postseason, slashing .138/.194/.276 with one homer in 31 plate appearances, but I like the spot tonight.
We’ve seen Suarez have some success against Shane Bieber throughout his career, going 4-for-18 with one homer.
Bieber gives up a lot of hard contact, including a 12.3% barrel rate, which also bodes well for this prop, so let’s ride with Suarez to hit homer No. 2 during these playoffs.
Josh Naylor Odds For MLB Home Run Picks:
The next pick zeroes in on Josh Naylor, who slashed .295/.353/.462 with 20 homers in 604 plate appearances this season.
We’ve seen the former Guardian have a strong postseason so far, featuring a .290 BA with one homer in 32 plate appearances. The dinger came last game, so perhaps Naylor is starting to find his power stroke.
The focus on this bet is how Bieber has one of the worst barrel rates in baseball, so we’re trying to find value on another Mariners hitter with long-shot odds.
George Springer Odds For MLB HR Predictions:
My final pick in home run predictions is George Springer, who was terrific for the Blue Jays this season, registering a .309/.399/.560 slash line with 32 home runs in 586 plate appearances. Springer also has two homers during these playoffs, including one in the ALCS, so he’s coming in at good form.
This is another Jays hitter who has done well against Kirby, homering once with a .582 expected slugging percentage in nine plate appearances.
Kirby has given up an 8.5% barrel rate this season, so he’s prone to hard contact at times, making Springer worth a look in this spot.
MLB Parlay For Home Run Predictions Today
Over at DraftKings, a three-leg homer parlay with Suarez, Naylor, and Springer generates +14000 odds. By converting that to implied probability, there’s a 0.7% chance this longshot wager cashes in.
Given the extreme volatility with homers, I recommend only wagering couch change on this longshot parlay. Always bet responsibly, and good luck with your home run picks for today!
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