Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants NFL First Touchdown Expert Picks & Predictions (9/10/23)

Get Cowboys Vs. Giants first touchdown picks & predictions for Sunday night’s game. You can find first touchdown props on a number of sportsbooks, but be sure to compare prices to get the best odds.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants First Touchdown Picks

The first Sunday night game features an NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Which bitter rival will come out on top?

Jake Ferguson First Touchdown (+2100 FD)

Dalton Schultz tied with CeeDee Lamb for the most red zone targets, and Jake Ferguson now steps into that role. He had an impressive preseason and displayed the ability to be a competent target for Prescott, especially when the field is shortened. The Cowboys recorded the third most first quarter points and own the superior offense and defense, so their chances of scoring the first touchdown are greater than New York’s.

The Giants also struggled mightily against athletic tight ends that could operate in space, so Ferguson owns a solid matchup here. It’s far from a given that Ferguson will get the volume, but the tools are there for Ferguson to secure that target. And based on the odds, we only need Ferguson to score first around four percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown (-130 DK)

Of the 45 running backs with at least 100 attempts, Pollard ranked second in yards after contact per attempt, tenth in missed tackles forced, and fifth in breakaway yards (per PFF). The fifth year back has been stuck behind Ezekial Elliot, but Pollard now commands the backfield with Elliot in New England. Therefore, he should see a plethora of carries here, which is a great sign for Pollard given his absurd efficiency and pass-catching abilities.

This is also a Giants defense that allowed the ninth most rushing touchdowns per game and graded as the 28th best run defense per PFF. Behind this solid offensive line and high-flying offense, Pollard will have plenty of chances to score a touchdown here.

For this bet to own a positive expected value, Pollard must score a touchdown around 56 percent of the time.

Saquon Barkley First Giants Touchdown (+310 BMGM)

Barkley remains New York’s most dynamic weapon on offense. Last season, the star running back produced 1,650 yards, 10 touchdowns, and appeared the healthiest he has been since the 2020 injury. The Giants attempted to bring in a top pass-catcher in tight end Darren Waller, but he’s dealing with an injury which may reduce his impact if he’s able to play on Sunday. That only furthers Barkley’s usage and offensive emphasis. Given his dynamic capabilities after the catch and elusiveness, Barkley is a constant threat to find the end zone.

The Cowboys allowed the 11th most rushing yards, as well as the 21st best run defense per PFF. Dallas should improve, but the line could still be a relative weakness compared to the excellent secondary, which acquired Stephon Gilmore.

For this bet to have a positive expected value, Barkley must score New York’s first touchdown around 24 percent of the time.

Cowboys Vs. Giants First Touchdown Odds

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