MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, July 6, 2026
We bounced back on Sunday, as Luis Garcia Jr. went yard, making up for misses on Heliot Ramos and Spencer Torkelson. Let’s try to build on this result.
Today, we’re going with Austin Riley, Isaac Paredes, and Manny Machado. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 59-225 (+1.02 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, July 6
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley has been one of the most disappointing hitters in MLB this year, slashing .211/.289/.340 with nine home runs in 356 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 15.2% to 10.1%, while his strikeout rate is at 28.9%.
However, Riley is slowly starting to show signs of getting on track, hitting safely in four of his last five games, including a homer against the Mets on July 4th.
Up next is a matchup against Freddy Peralta, who is another disappointing veteran, who is giving up a 1.23 HR/9 on the season. He’s given up a combined three home runs in his last three starts.
On top of that, Riley has had some success against Peralta throughout his career, homering twice in 19 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Riley to hit No. 10 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Isaac Paredes Home Run Odds
Isaac Paredes is currently slashing .254/.348/.423 with 12 home runs in 356 plate appearances. While he’s still not barreling the ball much (5.9%), I like targeting him to homer at longer than +400 odds tonight.
We just saw Paredes homer against the Rays last night, so perhaps this can be the start of a power binge. Remember, he hit 31 homers back in 2023. There’s a track record here.
It’s a good matchup against Nationals’ right-hander Miles Mikolas, who is giving up a 1.92 HR/9 this season. This is a pitcher who has given up two homers in two of his last three outings.
It’s a hitter-friendly environment at Nationals Park, with hot temperatures in the forecast. We’ll ride with Paredes to hit No. 13 in this spot.
Manny Machado Home Run Odds
Manny Machado has had a rough first half, where he’s slashing .189/.282/.410, but the power has still been there, as highlighted by 18 home runs in 366 plate appearances.
We’re starting to see Machado get on track, as he’s now homered in four of his last eight games. There’s a long enough track record to suggest that Machado will go on a prolonged hot streak sooner rather than later.
I like the matchup against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has always had issues with the long ball, and this year is no different, featuring a 1.66 HR/9.
Machado has one home run with a .574 expected slugging percentage in 21 plate appearances vs. Pfaadt, so there’s some familiarity here. To that end, we’ll ride with the veteran to hit No. 19 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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