MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, May 9, 2026

By Frank Ammirante | May 09, 2026, 5:54am

We got shut out on Friday, as Juan Soto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Trevor Story each failed to hit a home run. We’ll try to bounce back on the Saturday slate.

Today, we’re going with Byron Buxton, Julio Rodriguez, and Bobby Witt Jr. Each of these hitters is swinging a hot bat and is in a good spot to go yard.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 21-103 (-1.57 units)

Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, May 9

Byron Buxton Home Run Odds

Byron Buxton is currently slashing .243/.298/.514 with 11 home runs in 161 plate appearances. He’s clearly building off what we saw last year, when he homered 35 times in only 542 plate appearances. Buxton is absolutely crushing the ball, as highlighted by a 19.4% barrel rate.

You also have to love how red-hot Buxton has been at the plate, homering eight times since April 21st. Up next is an exploitable matchup, where he can go yard once again.

He’s going up against Tanner Bibee, who has allowed a 4.12 xERA and a 1.37 HR/9 this year. Buxton has one homer in 10 career plate appearances vs. Bibee.

It’s also worth noting that we’re getting favorable weather here, with forecasts calling for 13.6 MPH winds blowing out to right field.

Considering these factors, we’ll take Buxton to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

Julio Rodriguez Home Run Odds

Julio Rodriguez is currently slashing .260/.327/.407 with five home runs in 165 plate appearances. These are hardly numbers that jump off the page, but when you look at his recent game log, you become more intrigued, as Rodriguez has three homers in his last six games.

Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Anthony Kay, a lefty who is giving up a 7.63 xERA and a 1.80 HR/9 this season. Rodriguez has absolutely crushed lefties this season, putting up a 168 wRC+ against them.

Like in Cleveland, we’re getting favorable weather conditions in Chicago, with 10.3 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Given how Julio is swinging the bat lately, it makes sense to take a shot on him here. Risk 0.1 units.

Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds

Bobby Witt Jr. got off to a slow start, which is why his season-long slash at .298/.368/.457 with four home runs in 171 plate appearances isn’t too exciting, but he’s starting to get hot.

In his last 11 games, Witt has all four of his home runs. This is a hitter capable of 30+ home runs, so it’s likely going to be wheels up for him in the power department for the rest of the year.

I like the matchup at Kauffman Stadium here, which is more of a hitter’s park now that they moved the fences in. Witt will get to face an opener in Burch Smith, along with the Tigers’ bullpen.

We’re getting favorable weather here as well, as forecasts call for 78-degree temperatures with 8.3 MPH winds blowing out to center. With how Witt is seeing the ball well right now, we’ll take a shot on him hitting No. 5 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: AP/Stephen Brashear

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante has been creating sports betting and fantasy sports content for 5+ years, specializing in baseball and football, but also writing about basketball, hockey, and soccer. He has also written online casino, sweepstakes casino, prediction markets, and news articles while working as a content editor as well. You may have seen his work at The Game Day, RotoBaller, FantasyPros, Deadspin, Casino.org, and much more. Frank started out in the fantasy sports space and has competed in popular industry events like Tout Wars. His work has recently been published in this year's Fantasy Index fantasy baseball magazine. As an avid Blue Jays fan, Frank is still mourning their World Series loss to the Dodgers, calling it "one of the biggest collapses in sports history."