MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, July 5, 2026
We got shut out in home runs again on Saturday, as Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Kyle Tucker each failed to go yard. Let’s try to snap this cold streak on the Sunday slate.
Today, we’re going with Luis Garcia Jr., Heliot Ramos, and Spencer Torkelson. Each of these hitters is generating a lot of hard contact lately.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 58-223 (+0.78 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, July 5
Luis Garcia Jr. Home Run Odds
Luis Garcia Jr. is currently slashing .280/.311/.553 with 18 home runs in 289 plate appearances. He’s already matched his previous career-high in what’s been an unexpected power surge.
Garcia has increased his barrel rate from 9.0% to 10.3%, but the real story is how good he’s been lately. This is a hitter with eight home runs in his last 11 games. On top of that, in the last seven days, Garcia has a .474 xwOBA, which ranks 11th in MLB.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Pirates’ right-hander Bubba Chandler, who has a 4.16 xERA on the season. This isn’t a matchup to fear, so we’ll take a shot on Garcia going yard once again.
Bet on this power breakout to slug his 19th of the season today. Risk 0.1 units.
Heliot Ramos Home Run Odds
Heliot Ramos is currently slashing .266/.305/.452 with six home runs in 200 plate appearances. However, he’s making a ton of hard contact, increasing his barrel rate from 8.8% to 15.1%.
Since returning from injury on June 28th, Ramos already has two homers. He’s also got a .480 xwOBA during this stretch, which is tied for 9th in all of baseball.
Up next is a matchup at Coors Field against lefty Tanner Gordon, who has a 4.65 xERA and a 12.8% barrel rate this season. This is a pitcher who gives up a ton of hard contact, which is exactly what you want to target in a home run prop.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Ramos hitting No. 7 today. Risk 0.1 units.
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds
Spencer Torkelson is currently slashing .213/.313/.416 with 14 home runs in 343 plate appearances. However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, including an impressive 14.4% barrel rate.
Remember, this is a hitter who has two 30+ home run seasons under his belt, so the track record is there. We’ve seen Torkelson homer twice in his last six games, so perhaps this is the start of a power binge.
Additionally, in the last seven days, Torkelson has a .496 xwOBA, which ranks 8th in MLB.
Up next is a matchup against Kumar Rocker, who has a 4.52 xERA on the season. Considering that Torkelson is hot at the plate and Rocker is an exploitable matchup, we’ll ride with him to hit No. 15 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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