MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, July 4, 2026
We got shut out in home runs on Friday, as Gunner Henderson and Mookie Betts each failed to go yard. Let’s try to break out of this two-day slump with a winning day on the 4th of July.
Today, we’re going with Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Kyle Tucker. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 58-220 (+1.08 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, July 4
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is currently slashing .273/.345/.538 with 22 home runs in 374 plate appearances. It’s been a huge bounce-back season for the veteran first baseman, as he was rather disappointing last year.
Olson is coming off a big game against the Mets, where he homered twice. With proven sluggers like this, home runs often come in bunches, so perhaps this is the start of a power binge.
I like the matchup tonight against Sean Manaea, even though it’s a lefty-vs-lefty spot. That’s because Olson is quite familiar with Manaea, going 3-for-8 with one home run and a .474 expected slugging percentage against him.
Since we get a bit of a discount on Olson since it’s lefty-vs-lefty, that makes this bet even more appealing. Let’s ride with him to hit No. 23 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is having yet another terrific season, slashing .250/.365/.570 with 30 home runs in 375 plate appearances. He’s well on his way to another 50+ homer year.
Schwarber hasn’t homered since June 28th, but I like his chances of going yard tonight. It’s an exploitable matchup against Royals’ right-hander Michael Wacha.
We’ve got some enticing batter-vs-pitcher data for this matchup, as Schwarber has four home runs with a .905 expected slugging percentage in 26 career plate appearances against Wacha. I can’t pass up those numbers.
Add in the fact that this is in a hitter-friendly environment at Kauffman Stadium, and you have a spot where Schwarber feels likely to hit his 31st homer of the season. Even at the inflated odds that you normally find on such an elite power hitter, sign me up. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Kyle Tucker has been a huge disappointment in his first year with the Dodgers, slashing .246/.348/.385 with seven home runs in 353 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has gone from 14.7% to 20.4%, while his barrel rate has plummeted from 10.8% to 5.6%.
However, this is a hitter with a lengthy track record, including two 30-homer seasons under his belt. There’s a reason why the Dodgers gave him such a lucrative contract this offseason. It’s only a matter of time before Tucker gets going.
In fact, we’re starting to see some encouraging signs at the plate. Before going 0-for-4 last night, Tucker went 4-for-5 on Thursday and had four walks on Wednesday. It feels like he’s on the cusp of a hot streak, so I want to hop on board right before it comes.
I like tonight’s matchup against Griffin Canning, who has a 5.05 xERA and a 1.53 HR/9 this season. Canning has been crushed by lefties this season, giving up a .416 wOBA.
On top of that, Tucker has two homers in 22 career plate appearances against Canning. With that in mind, it feels like the spot that Tucker hits his eighth homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.
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