The American Express 2026 Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets & Picks, Including Min Woo Lee
It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2026 American Express at PGA West. Find American Express odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay are the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
The PGA Tour heads east to PGA West for the first event of the season on the continental U.S., the 2026 American Express. The pro-am format returns, and the three-course rotation between the Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club will continue.
This isn’t my favorite event on the schedule. A variety of courses isn’t always bad, but when there are different flavors of the same birdie-fest, it’s hard for me to get excited. The absence of ShotLink data on 50% of rounds played adds a layer of randomness, making it more challenging to handicap players who suit the course accurately.
At PGA West, the rough is essentially nonexistent on all three courses. Outside of the water hazards — which come into play on about one-third of the holes — there are very few hazards to offer resistance from tee to green. Unlike last week’s sub-7,200-yard setup, there is little reward for position off the tee at PGA West’s courses. Instead, we’ll look to zero in on players who thrived in other birdie fests, comp conditions, and similar pro-am setups.
Let’s dive into the storylines and stats that most matter in 2026 American Express odds.
2026 Opening American Express Odds: The Favorites
Here are the outright winner odds for the American Express at golf betting sites this week. Click on the odds in the table to bet now. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
American Express Odds: The Field At A Glance
We tend not to expect elite names to appear in droves at a birdie-fest, let alone one laden with amateurs and six-hour daily rounds. However, as an interesting rippling effect from The Sentry’s absence on the schedule, it appears many of the game’s best were eager to get their season start in the first continent U.S. event of the 2026 PGA TOUR season.
World No. 1 and thrice-reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year, Scottie Scheffler, is set to make his 2026 debut this week. This will be his sixth career appearance at The American Express, with his best career finish (3rd) coming in his 2020 debut. Scheffler was committed to play this event last year before a rogue ravioli incident sidelined him for the start of the 2025 season. By his standards, a failure to crack the top-10 in any of his last four appearances have made Scheffler look a bit human at PGA West.
It is a loaded field the 2026 American Express beyond Scheffler alone. A total of 12 OWGR top-25 players are coming to La Quinta. That list will be headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, and Robert MacIntyre.
Will Zalatoris is also back in the field this week, making his first PGA TOUR start since the Truist Championship back in May 2025. He looked like his normal self at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in mid-December, and the golf world will be wishing him a healthy 2026.
Sepp Straka cruised to victory this time last year, putting on a stripe show from beginning to end. He was -23 through his first three rounds and pounded fairways and greens into submission on Sunday to notch his third career PGA TOUR win at the time. He’s back to defend his title in 2026, and will be joined by Nick Dunlap, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, and Adam Long as former champions teeing it up this week.
Introduction To PGA West & The Pro-Am Format
The American Express is the year’s first event of the season to feature a pro-am setup. That format is in place throughout the first three days of this tournament. Each pro pairs up with an amateur, so each foursome has two pros and two amateurs. In the three-course rotation format, about 50 pros will play the courses daily, rotating Thursday through Saturday before the 70-man, 54-hole cut. All players through the cut play the Stadium Course again on Sunday.
In this event’s early days — known as the Bob Hope Desert Classic — the pro-am was a massive draw for some of the biggest celebrities in Hollywood. Previous inclusions: Bing Crosby, Frank Sinatra, and Gerald Ford. Over time, however, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has attracted more celebrities to its field, with fewer notable amateur names coming to The AmEx.
It also adds three critical nuances compared to a typical PGA Tour event:
- More accessible pin locations
- Slowed down green speeds
- Rounds of six-plus hours
It’s a different animal, which may explain why players like Phil Mickelson, Patrick Cantlay, and Tom Hoge have such strong histories both here and at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s not for everyone, but clearly, some favor this unique format.
How It Breaks Down
The courses this week share many of the same traits. Each layout is par 72, under 7,200 yards, with overseeded dormant Bermuda grass, desert-style, and very easy to score on. They mainly feature reachable par 5s and shorter par 4s.
Across the three courses, 41% of holes fall in the par 4: 350-450 range. Par-5 scoring will be crucial to keeping pace this week, as all three courses feature four reachable par 5s and a heavy concentration in the 500 to 550-yard range.
Courses Preview
The Stadium Course — played once Thursday through Saturday and again Sunday — presents the greatest challenge of the three. It’s a Pete Dye design emulating TPC Sawgrass with challenging water hazards on seven holes. Avoiding the water on the Stadium Course will be key this week, as there will be very little resistance from the other courses. Sepp Straka noted after his 2025 victory, “You are one swing away from a double bogey every hole at The Stadium Course, so you have to keep making confident and committed swings”.
The Stadium Course’s best defense is in its par 3s, as holes on the back nine rank No. 1, 2, and 4 in scoring difficulty. They have proven decisive in crowning a champion on Sundays.
Overall, there are 10 holes at the Stadium Course with a scoring average below par. The historical scoring average is -1.33.
The La Quinta Country and Nicklaus Tournament courses are considerably more manageable. Players need to capitalize by going low on those two rounds to keep pace. Though they lack ShotLink data, both courses feature a scoring average of -2.1 and share the same concentration of short par 4s and reachable par 5s.
Check out our American Express odds page for PGA West course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past American Express winners’ pre-tournament odds.
Event History And Course Comps
We’ll sub out any “course history” terminology with “event history,” looking at players who played best across the three courses. Only half of the four rounds this week will be played at the Stadium Course, which holds all the SG data.
Looking at recent finishes, eight players posted multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Patrick Cantlay, Ben Griffin, JT Poston, Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim, Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Scottie Scheffler.
There are 10 players who’ve avoided missing the cut in this event over the last five years (minimum three appearances): Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, Ben Griffin, Alex Smalley, Keith Mitchell, Harry Higgs, Si Woo Kim, Sam Stevens, Davis Thompson, and Eric Cole.
In terms of event history, it’s Sam Burns who leads the pack, despite him still searching for his first career win at this event. Burns has routinely been a factor at this event, with three finishes of T11-or-better over the last five years. After Burns, the rest of the top 10 in event history rounds out with Bud Cauley, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Cam Davis, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Kevin Yu, Brian Harman, and Matti Schmid.
Comp Courses
I’d be hesitant to compare PGA West to other short courses on tour. The courses at PGA West aren’t positional and don’t penalize players for missing the fairway — as long as they avoid the water on the Stadium Course.
Of the short setups on tour, the Stadium Course is most similar to Sea Island (Seaside), TPC Southwind, and TPC River Highlands. Each are short courses featuring persistent water hazards. From fairway to green, PGA West also draws comparisons to desert courses (TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Summit Club) and open, second-shot birdie fests (CC of Jackson, Keene Trace GC, Monterey Peninsula).
From a correlated performance standpoint, this event bares plenty of overlap with leaderboards at THE PLAYERS Championship and The Cognizant Classic.
The Stadium Course is an authentic Pete Dye design made in the image of TPC Sawgrass. Although it plays much easier, it’s definitely worth a closer look. Players like Sepp Straka and Justin Thomas have also consistently played both the Cognizant Classic and The AmEx well.
Looking at SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, the top 10 players in comp course history at these tracks are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Doug Ghim, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Russell Henley, and Brian Harman.
Key Stats To Consider For 2026 AmEx Odds
- SG: APP
- Birdies or better gained
- SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions)
- Par-5 scoring
- Par 4: 350-450
- Par-3 scoring
- Good drives gained
- SG: P (L36)
- Course and comp course history
The strokes gained data only tell half the story this week. As a result, we’re flying blind for two of the four rounds (La Quinta, Nicklaus Course). There’s still plenty of value in what the Stadium Course numbers tell us, but given that blind spot in data, I’m leaning on broader and overarching stats this week. These will be relevant across all four rounds.
Possible Fits
Look beyond Jon Rahm in 2023; the list of past winners suggests that driving distance doesn’t matter here. Recent wins from Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Patrick Reed, and Brian Gay defend that case. That would usually come as no surprise, but PGA West is a collection of second-shot courses that reward players who can spike with their irons and putting. This week, the top 10 in terms of SG: APP leading are Scottie Scheffler, Rico Hoey, Si Woo Kim, Austin Eckroat, Kurt Kitayama, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Griffin, Chris Kirk, Doug Ghim, and Austin Smotherman.
La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course perennially rank in the top three most straightforward courses on tour. Rather than over-analyzing hole by hole, the best birdie-makers should take advantage of these two courses. The top 10 players in birdies or better gained are Scottie Scheffler, Adrien Sadier, Rico Hoey, Kurt Kitayama, Kris Ventura, Harry Hall, Patrick Rodgers, Eric Cole, Sami Valinaki, and Jackson Suber.
Refining this down in the simplest terms — I’m looking for elite iron players, streaky putting, and those who have proven they can go low in comparable conditions. Ten players in the field this week rank above average in SG: APP, SG: P, birdies or better gained, SG: TOT (easy conditions), and comp course history: Scottie Scheffler, Ben Griffin, Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, Michael Thorbjornsen, Matti Schmid, Neal Shipley, and Robert MacIntyre.
Correlated Stats
Since we only have historical strokes gained data from the Stadium Course, correlation charts should be taken with a grain of salt. But if you buy into the notion that if you can play well at the Stadium Course, you should also play well at the two easier courses, this may still be useful.
At the Stadium Course, we see a notable jump in the importance of par-3 scoring, specifically par 3: 0-150 yards. Though the stock yardages don’t show it, No. 4 and No. 17 can play to <150 yards when tee boxes are moved around. That makes for viable birdie opportunities in an event where birdies are the prime commodity. The top five players in par-3 scoring are Harry Hall, Ben Griffin, Vince Whaley, Lee Hodges, and Scottie Scheffler.
Driving distance has been more helpful than the tour average at this event, though not of paramount importance. The longer-range metrics like prox 200+ and par 4: 500+ have not correlated with success here.
Considering each of the above key categories, eight players fall above average in all 10 categories at the Stadium Course: Billy Horschel, Matti Schmid, Neal Shipley, Michael Thorbjornsen, Ludvig Aberg, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, and Scottie Scheffler.
Player Spotlight: Min Woo Lee
As one of the longest hitters on the PGA TOUR, it’s natural to look the other way when Min Woo comes to a short course that rewards accurate ball-striking. Min Woo, however, has transcended course fit on setups like these in his first two years on TOUR.
Looking at two of the strongest correlated courses in PGA National and TPG Sawgrass, Min Woo has looked his best with three top-11 finishes and just one placement worse than T26 over seven career appearances between the two. The correlation has paid off so far at The AmEx as well, as Min Woo looked strong with a T21 finish in his 2024 debut here.
Making his 2026 debut this week, Min Woo has stayed sharp in the PGA TOUR off-season, picking up top-15 finishes in each of his last two DP World Tour starts. That continues a stretch of hot form that includes five top-15 finishes over his last six starts. Ranking top-15 in both SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions) and Comp Course History, Min Woo’s game fits well at PGA West to over-power the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta CC, while holding his own on the positional Stadium Course.
2026 American Express: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2026 American Express odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing releasing on Monday.
Model Results & Breakdown
For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, comp course history, BoB gained, SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions), and SG: P (L36), followed by a balanced mix of par-5 scoring, good drives gained, and par 4: 350-450 yards.
Model Favorites
To absolutely no one’s surprise, Scottie Scheffler tops my model for his first start of 2026. If you’re running your own model this week and Scheffler is not at the top of it, you might want to try again. Scheffler’s course history is modest at The American Express, and yet, he still ranks top-5 in the field in Course History, also leading the field in all “Easy Scoring Conditions” metrics.
After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 rounds out with Ben Griffin, Sam Burns, Kurt Kitayama, Rico Hoey, Doug Ghim, Russell Henley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Patrick Cantlay, and Ludvig Aberg.
The trends suggest fading the favorites and building out exposure across a broader list of longshots. However, with an uncharacteristically strong field, I’ll be open to concentrating exposure to the favorites if the value is there. I’m not opposed to betting Burns, Griffin, or Henley, but assuming their odds are too short, I am more likely to begin my card with players like Min Woo Lee, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Doug Ghim.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating the 2026 American Express odds!
