Top March Madness Upsets to Watch for on Saturday, March 21, 2026

Just like that, the first round is over, and we’re on to the Round of 32. This round will also take place over two days, and on Saturday, March 21, we’ll see a few upsetters in action, including Texas A&M, VCU, Texas, High Point, Saint Louis, and TCU. 

Below, I’ll look at three potential upset spots of the eight games on the docket.

Top March Madness Upsets for Friday

• Louisville (+4.5) over Michigan State
• High Point (+11.5) over Arkansas
• Texas (+6.5) over Gonzaga

Louisville (+4.5) Over Michigan State

One of the more intriguing matchups on the slate is Michigan State vs. Louisville, and I think Michigan State could be in for an upset against an offense that may be without Mikel Brown Jr. but is still finding ways to win.

Let’s look at their win over South Florida. They shot the ball quite well, going 53.8% from the field and 52% from beyond the arc. This made up for them shooting just 56% from the line. Defensively, they held South Florida to just 39% and attempted 77 shots. Of those 377, 33 were 3-point shots, and they shot just 15.2%. 

I was surprised that Sanandra Fru out-rebounded Izaiyah Nelson 10-9, too. Ryan Conwell played well, going for 18 points, but it was Isaac McKneely who led the way with 23 points and shooting 8 of 11 from the field, including 7 of 10 from deep. What’s surprising, too, is that Louisville has 22 turnovers and still won. That’s quite surprising. 

As for Michigan State, they just trounced North Dakota State, 92-67. Jeremy Fears Jr. had just seven points but had 11 assists. Four players had double-digit points, led by Carson Cooper with 20. Michigan State shot 58.9% from the field, including 50% from 3-point range. They also shot a fantastic percentage from the line (88.9%). The Spartans crashed the boards, too, out-rebounding the Bison 34-19. 

I believe Louisville could get the win here. They cannot turn the ball over that many times, so assuming there’s some positive regression there, they’re playing strong defense against the 3-ball, holding teams to right around 26% from there over their last three games. Michigan State and Louisville average almost the same rebounds per game, too. Don’t be surprised if Louisville pulls out a win. If they do advance, they could have Brown Jr. back to help make a surprising push. 

High Point (+11.5) over Arkansas

While High Point may be a No. 12 seed, as we saw in their win over Wisconsin, this is just another No. 12 seed that’s going to be beaten up on. As we saw in their massive, exhilarating win over Wisconsin, this is an incredibly athletic team that has an offense that can keep pace. 

In the win over Wisconsin, High Point shot 41.9% from the floor, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the line. They also only committed six turnovers. This team will get off a bunch of shots each game, so while their percentage is lower than Arkansas from beyond the arc, they put up a lot of shots, and if they’re hot one afternoon, that can pose a problem. Not only that, but they’ve won 15 in a row, including their win over Wisconsin. 

Of course, they are playing an Arkansas team that beat Hawaii by nearly 20, 97-78. Darius Acuff Jr. had 24 points and seven assists. Meleek Thomas added 21 points, and Trevon Brazile had 19. Arkansas shot 54.2% from the field, and just 19% from beyond the arc. 

Here’s where I think it can go wrong: Arkansas is a team that’s going to take some good shots, but can they slow down High Point? High Point will attempt a lot of shots, and I’ll be curious if Arkansas manages to limit them from deep. 

Neither of these teams turns the ball over much, either. Even if High Point doesn’t get the win, I do think they can cover the number. These are two offenses that will score. 

Texas (+6.5) over Gonzaga

As a First Four team, Texas got a win over NC State and then took down BYU, 79-71. This came despite AJ Dybansta putting up 35 points. Gonzaga was a 21-point favorite against Kennesaw State, and couldn’t put them away, beating them 73-64. 

One of the main storylines for Gonzaga is being without Braden Huff, and he’s impacted them on both ends of the floor. Against Kennesaw State, Gonzaga didn’t shoot well, going 39.7% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. They did out-rebound Kennesaw State, 39-32. Graham Ike had 19 points and eight boards, and Jalen Warley had 12 points and 12 rebounds. Also, David Fogle added 17.

As for Texas, they came into the tournament weak, having lost multiple games, but Matas Vokietaitis has been fantastic. He logged 23 points and 16 rebounds in the win over BYU, and Texas had reasonable shooting numbers, including 47% from the field and 36.4% from 3-point range. They also shot just 50% from the free-throw line. 

According to KenPom, these teams are pretty close. Texas ranks 16th in offensive efficiency (124.3) and 85th in defensive efficiency (104.4). As for Gonzaga, they’re 31st in offensive efficiency (121.3) and 10th in defensive efficiency (93.8).

For this game, I cannot wait to see Ike and Vokietaitis go head-to-head. Ike does a lot of damage on the glass and scoring, but Vokietaitis might be his toughest challenge yet. Texas is loaded with veteran players, and if they can shoot better from the line and Vokietaitis gets the best of Ike, Texas could be a surprising win.