UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Top Prediction Market Trades for Saturday, July 11, 2026
Conor McGregor makes his highly anticipated return to the octagon five years after his last UFC appearance. The former two-division champion takes on fellow UFC legend Max Holloway in a rematch nearly 13 years in the making. The two headline a stacked UFC 329 card featuring some of the promotion’s top contenders. Saturday’s event will be the first pay-per-view card without a title bout since UFC 272 in March 2022.
The 14-fight card gets underway at 5 p.m. ET with nine preliminary bouts before the main card. Prediction markets are already offering trades on all 14 fights, including the fighter to win, the method of victory, and several others. Let’s break down some of the best early card fights and which trades offer the most value at UFC 329.
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Top Prediction Market Trades: Best UFC 329 Trades for Saturday, July 11
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez – Fight Ends Before Round 2 (0.38⊄ at Kalshi)
Garbrandt and Yanez meet in one of the night’s final prelim bouts, a bantamweight matchup between two veteran strikers. Both have a history of early finishes throughout their careers, and this one is expected to follow suit. Yanez enters as the heavy betting favorite despite winning just one of his last five fights.
Both fighters will be competing for the second time this year. Garbrandt snapped a two-fight losing streak with his first win since 2023 back in March. The 35-year-old is now 10-7 in the UFC, with seven of his 17 fights ending in the first round. Yanez, who came to the promotion later in his career, has had five of his 11 fights end inside the opening five minutes. Both men have shown a clear pattern of finishing or being finished in the first round and will be looking to reignite their careers on Saturday night.
Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov – Robert Whittaker to Win (0.56⊄ on Kalshi)
Whittaker enters Saturday’s card having suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in over a decade. The former middleweight champion looks to get back in the win column after nearly a year away from competition, following a split-decision defeat to Reinier de Ridder last July. He now faces fellow UFC veteran Nikita Krylov, who ended his own two-fight skid earlier this year.
Both fighters are dangerous on their feet and on the ground. Krylov will look to add to his 16 career submission wins against Whittaker, who showed vulnerability in his grappling defense against Khamzat Chimaev in late 2024. Whittaker, meanwhile, will look to close the distance on the taller fighter early and capitalize on Krylov’s history of first-round knockouts — he has been stopped in the opening round in two of his last three fights.
Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida – Damian Pinas by KO/TKO/DQ (0.50⊄ on Kalshi)
One of the most intriguing prelim matchups features two fighters still relatively early in their careers squaring off in a middleweight bout. Pinas has all the makings of a future UFC star at just 24 years old. The Aruban native takes on 38-year-old César Almeida, who has continued to impress since arriving in the UFC despite his age. The Brazilian has never been knocked out as a professional but faces one of the more dangerous young contenders in the division on Saturday.
Pinas comes in having won his first two UFC appearances by knockout. Eight of his nine professional victories have come by KO, with one submission back in 2023. He now faces Almeida, primarily a kickboxer, in what will be his toughest test to date. Pinas will look to make it six straight wins by stoppage against the more experienced Almeida on Saturday night.\
Photo Credit: REUTERS
