Bears vs Falcons Prediction (11/20/22)

It’s time for some old school football in Atlanta this Sunday as the Bears take on the Falcons. The Bears and Falcons are two of the few teams which play through their run game on offense. Don’t tell either of these teams it’s not 1960 anymore. Though this battle between the 3-7 Bears and the 4-6 will likely have no impact on anything other than the draft order, this game will determine which team has the most stubborn run game.

Chicago Bears Vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

The Falcons are (-3) point home favorites over the Bears (+3), with the over/under set at a high 49.5. Given the way the Bears offense has been rolling the past few weeks, the Bears are a top choice for an upset this week.

Chicago Bears Vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

The Bears are on a three game losing streak, but if there’s any constellation it’s that QB Justin Fields has emerged as a leader for the Bears and the current best QB from the 2021 draft class. While he is far from perfect, (just look at last week’s questionable pick six to CB Jeff Okudah,) his dual threat capabilities have the Bears averaging 31 points the past four games after only scoring an average of 15.5 points the first six games. Another emerging player for the Bears offense is TE Cole Kmet, who’s scored 2 touchdowns in each of the past two games. A threat in the passing game is crucial not only for the Bears offense, but the development of Fields going forward.

The Falcons have fallen from 1st place in the NFC South to the mid team we expected in the preseason after a Thursday night loss to the Panthers last week. The Panthers stifled the Falcons run game, with the Falcons leading rusher, QB Marcus Mariota, only gaining 43 yards. This was a particularly disappointing figure after the return of RB Cordarelle Patterson, but the Falcons hope another week back from injury will help Patterson return to his early season dominance. Defensively, the Falcons secondary has struggled, allowing a league worst 280.1 yards per game. They are once again hoping for superstar CB A.J Terrell to return from injury as he hasn’t played since October 23rd.

I’m taking the Bears to upset the Falcons on the road and finally close out a game because Fields is too much of a mismatch. I also anticipate this game will hit the over as the Bears offense is now high scoring while their defense struggles to stop anyone.

Prediction: Bears win 30-23, Over hits.

Betting Trends

• Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

Key Injuries

Chicago Bears Injuries: Kindle Vildor (Q), Matthew Adams (Q), Teven Jenkins (Q), Ledarius Mack (Q), Andre Anthony (O), Khalil Herbert (Q), Tavon Young (Q), David Moore (Q), Al-Quadin Muhammad (Q),
Christian Albright (Q)

Atlanta Falcons Injuries: Feleipe Franks (Q), A.J. Terrell (Q), Erik Harris (Q), Marlon Davidson (Q), Jared Bernhardt (Q), John FitzPatrick (Q), Damien Williams (Q), Jalen Mayfield (Q),
Casey Hayward (Q)

Bears vs Falcons Key Matchups

Will Justin Fields be able to continue his hot streak against this Falcons defense? Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Bears vs Falcons below.

The Falcons Offensive Line vs the Bears Defensive Front

The Falcons poor offensive line play versus the Panthers likely played a large role in their loss. Not only did they have a hard time creating openings for the run game, but they also allowed five sacks. The Bears pass rush has gotten less ferocious since they traded away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, but young players like LB Jack Sanborn are emerging to help wreck opposing offenses. The undrafted rookie Sanborn had two sacks, two QB hits, and two tackles for Lions in an otherwise disappointing defensive showcase versus the Lions.

Justin Fields vs Falcons Defense

Though Justin Field’s passing numbers aren’t exactly setting records his rushing totals sure are. Fields is currently the 6th leading rusher in the league with 749 yards and an astonishing 7.2 yards per carry. He’s led the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the league at 201.7 yards per game, over 30 more yards than the next best team. After a 147 yard rushing effort versus the Lions, he became the first Bears player to rush for 147 yards in back to back games since Hall of Famer Walter Payton. His running ability has invigorated his team’s offense, and keeps the Bears in every game. Check out his 67 yard touchdown run where he broke through the whole Lions defense.

Are you serious, @justnfields?! 🤯

📺: #DETvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/aNYLmrOpSx

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 13, 2022

Justin Fields reached a top speed of 20.15 mph on his 67-yard TD run, his 7th carry of 20+ mph this season (most in NFL).

All other quarterbacks have combined for 9 carries exceeding 20 mph this season.#DETvsCHI | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/l1oZCIcdeE

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 13, 2022

After the Falcons gave up 232 rushing yards to the Panthers offense, don’t be surprised to see Justin Field running wild like he has the rest of the season.

Chicago Bears Depth Chart

QB: Justin Fields
RB1: David Montgomery
RB2: Khalil Herbert
WR1: Darnell Mooney
WR2: Byron Pringle
WR3: Equanimeous St. Brown
TE1: Cole Kmet

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Marcus Mariota
RB1: Cordarrelle Patterson
RB2: Tyler Allgeier
LWR: Bryan Edwards
RWR: Drake London
SWR: Olamide Zaccheaus
TE1: Kyle Pitts