The 4-7 Saints play their second straight NFC West team this week, heading to the Golden State to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 6-4 49ers return north from their trip south of the border to Mexico City where they impressed with a Monday Night Football win over the Cardinals. Will the Saints overcome the odds with the 49ers coming off a short week and international game? Or can the 49ers get their fourth straight win? Let’s take a closer look at this matchup.
New Orleans Saints Vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds
The 49ers are favored by a wide margin (-9.5) over the Saints (+9.5). Even after the 49ers scored a season high 38 points this past week, the over/under is still relatively low at 43. This is likely because the 49ers have the #4 scoring defense, so Vegas anticipates this will keep the Saints from scoring a lot of points.
New Orleans Saints Vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
The 49ers pulled off their most convincing win of the stadium in the altitude of Mexico City. They tore down the Arizona Cardinals, holding them to 3 points in a 38-10 victory. What stood out for the 49ers offense was all their key players from Deebo Samuel to Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey got touches and helped gain first downs. Both TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk had two touchdowns. Even Jimmy Garoppolo played a great game, throwing 4 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions. Their weapons got a big boost from the offensive line, who opened holes for the offense and gave up 0 sacks. The defense obviously had a standout performance as well, holding the Cardinals to just 10 points, and 0 points in the second half of the game.
Fiesta in Mexico City @gkittle46
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 22, 2022
The Saints also come off of a strong win, beating the Rams 27-20 this past Sunday. After questions of whether the Saints should switch back to QB Jameis Winston, QB Andy Dalton delivered an incredibly efficient performance, throwing only 4 completions while going 21/25 with 3 touchdowns and 0 picks. He even spread the ball to 9 different pass catchers.
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 21, 2022
The Saints defense also played well in the win, with LB Kaden Ellis and DE Carl Granderson adding 1.5 sacks each while the secondary held the Rams pass attack to just 220 passing yards. If the Saints can get some of their key defensive players back from injury like DE Cameron Jordan, OLB Pete Werner, and CB Marshon Lattimore, it will definitely help stop the 49ers wide group of skill players.
I’m taking the 49ers to win and cover at home versus the Saints. The 49ers talent outclasses the Saints, especially on offense, and the 49ers are much healthier than the Saints right now. In addition, the 49ers are 3-1 at home while the Saints have only gone 1-3 on the road. All signs point to another convincing 49er win to keep them atop the NFC West.
Prediction: 49ers 28-17, over hits
Saints are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC.
New Orleans Saints Injuries: Marcus Davenport (Q), Pete Werner (Q), J.T. Gray (Q), Marshon Lattimore (Q), James Hurst (Q), Cameron Jordan (Q), Mark Ingram (Q), Deonte Harty (Q), Payton Turner (Q), Dylan Soehner (Q), Jerald Hawkins (Q), Forrest Lamp (Q)
San Francisco 49ers Injuries: Arik Armstead (Q), Samson Ebukam (Q), Javon Kinlaw (Q), Kalia Davis (Q)
Chris Olave vs the 49ers Secondary
The Saints rookie WR Chris Olave was a star performer this past week versus the Rams. Olave went for a stunning 102 yards on just 5 receptions, highlighted by a 53 yard touchdown. According the NextGenStats, Olave reached the second highest speed of the weekend, hitting 20.54 mph on the touchdown.
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 20, 2022
Though the 49ers have the #1 ranked defense in yards allowed, this hasn’t stopped receivers from having big games. Both WR Greg Dortch and WR DeAndre Hopkins of the Cardinals had big games with Dortch going for 103 yards and Hopkins adding 91 yards. With 49ers CB Jason Verrett and CB Emmanuel Moseley or IR, Olave definitely has a chance to make some game changing plays to try and give the Saints a much needed spark.
49ers Run Game vs Saints Run Defense
The Saints still get to face RB Christian McCaffrey again, even after he was traded out of their division. When Christian McCaffrey faced the Saints earlier this season, he went for 108 rushing yards. The Saints will also have to worry about RB Elijah Mitchell, who is back from injury and averaged 6.6 yards per carry versus the Cardinals. This after WR Deebo Samuel’s 39 yard touchdown scamper will leave the Saints defensive coordinator restless all week. The Saints run defense has struggled the majority of the year, giving up about 132 rush yards per game, which is a big advantage for the 49ers.
Run that back, Deebo! @19problemz
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 22, 2022