2026 MLB Home Run Derby Contenders, Predictions & Player Betting Market Odds
The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby takes place on Monday, July 13th at 8 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. This year is a bit different, as MLB has removed the time clock and gone to a swing-based format.
Each of the eight competitors gets 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 in both the semifinals and finals. On top of that, if a player homers on his final swing in a round, they get a bonus swing. They can keep swinging until they don’t homer. I’m a big fan of these rule changes, since hitters don’t have to rush their swing to make sure that they beat the clock.
On this page, we’re going to break down each of the eight competitors for the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. We’ll also include a best bet for each hitter. So, without further ado, let’s get right into it.
2026 Home Run Derby Predictions & Odds
The 2026 Home Run Derby features the following eight hitters:
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
- Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
- Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
- Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals
- Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
- Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
- Ben Rice, New York Yankees
- Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
2026 HR Total: 32
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Kyle Schwarber is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball, well on his way to another 50-homer season after going yard 56 times last season. The 33-year-old veteran should benefit from playing in his home park. You also have to love the batted ball metrics, which include a 19.5% barrel rate. This is the third time that Schwarber has competed in the Home Run Derby. Back in 2018, he lost as runner-up to current teammate Bryce Harper. There’s a good chance that Schwarber can go deep in this competition.
Best Bet: NO BET
While I like Schwarber’s chances of doing well at the Home Run Derby, given his track record and familiarity with the ballpark, his odds are too inflated to take him to win here.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
2026 HR Total: 28
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Junior Caminero is on an incredible hot streak right now, homering 13 times in his last 18 games. It’s clear that he isn’t showing any regression from last year’s monster numbers, which included 45 home runs. With elite batted ball metrics and among the fastest bat speed in MLB, Caminero has exactly the type of profile you’re looking for when choosing a Home Run Derby winner. We saw Caminero finish as runner-up to Cal Raleigh in the 2025 Home Run Derby, so he’s got what it takes to win here.
Best Bet: NO BET
In a volatile market like the Home Run Derby, I prefer to target a hitter with odds of +500 or longer. That makes it tough for me to get to Caminero here, since he’s priced at around +400 odds at the time of this article.
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
2026 HR Total: 20
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Munetaka Murakami has displayed prodigious power in his first year in the big leagues. Don’t get fooled by his 20 home runs, as he’s missed 30+ games with a hamstring strain. Now back in the White Sox lineup, Murakami will look to make a statement with a strong showing at his debut Home Run Derby. This is a hitter who can slug moonshots. The no-doubters that he hits are a sight to behold. That makes Murakami an intriguing pick to win the Home Run Derby this year.
Best Bet: Murakami to win HR Derby
Murakami is one of my best bets to win the Home Run Derby because we’re getting around +500 odds at a hitter with some of the most raw power in baseball.
Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals
2026 HR Total: 15
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Jac Caglianone is a former top prospect who is finally starting to put it together in his first full season in the big leagues. We saw him show what he can do with a monster June. He’s got elite raw power with strong batted ball metrics and the ability to hit no-doubters out of the park. I can see Caglianone putting forth a great effort in his first Home Run Derby as he tries to make a statement to the rest of the league. I’m intrigued by his upside in this competition.
Best Bet: Caglianone to win HR Derby
Caglianone is the second of my three picks to win the Home Run Derby. Given the price at longer than +600 odds, I like this play a bit more than Murakami. There’s a bit more value here.
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
2026 HR Total: 22
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Jordan Walker has been the biggest breakout of the 2026 MLB season. The former top prospect has finally put it all together. He’s always had loud tools with elite bat speed, but it wasn’t until this year that he found his groove in the big leagues. This is a hitter who can absolutely crush the ball, which makes me optimistic about his chances at his debut Home Run Derby. Look for Walker to put forth a strong showing as he tries to make a statement to the rest of the league.
Best Bet: Walker to win HR Derby
Walker is my third and final pick to win the Home Run Derby. With his elite bat speed and ability to barrel the ball at a high rate, he checks all the boxes you’re looking for with a HR Derby winner.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2026 HR Total: 20
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Bryce Harper is having a bit of a resurgence when it comes to power, as he’s only seven homers away from last season’s total. As a bonus, he’s playing in his home stadium, which should help him perform well due to the familiarity. This is Harper’s third HR Derby. In 2013, he finished as the runner-up before losing to Yoenis Cespedes. In 2018, ended up winning the entire competition. So as you can see here, he’s fared extremely well in this, making him an intriguing pick to win.
Best Bet: NO BET
Despite Harper’s familiarity with Citizens Bank Park and overall success in the HR Derby, I’m not going to recommend him as a pick, even with the appealing odds. Harper simply does not have the same power as others in the field, making it tough for me to see him winning the entire competition.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
2026 HR Total: 29
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
Ben Rice has delivered on the hype this season, establishing himself as one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball. While he’s listed as a longshot to win this competition, he’s got an elite barrel rate with proven production, making him worth a look at this appealing price. Like others on this list, it’s Rice’s first HR Derby, so he’ll be looking to put on a show. I can see him going deep, at least winning a round. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hit the longest HR in the derby, either, as he’s got elite power.
Best Bet: NO BET
Despite the appealing odds, I’m going to pass on Rice, instead focusing on Murakami, Caglianone, and Walker.
Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
2026 HR Total: 20
Odds to Win HR Derby:
Longest HR in Derby?
What a debut season it’s been for Willson Contreras with the Red Sox, as he’s already only four homers away from his career high. With that said, Contreras doesn’t have nearly as much power as others on this list, so it’s hard to envision a scenario where he wins this competition. This will be Contreras’ first time in the competition. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him out in the first round, but perhaps he can surprise with the way he’s found his power stroke this season.
Best Bet: NO BET
I know we want to lean into uncertainty in an unpredictable competition like the HR Derby, but I don’t see value in Contreras’ current price, as he doesn’t have as much power as others in the field.
