2026 World Cup Quarterfinals Best Prediction Market Trades, Picks & Predictions
The 2026 World Cup is now down to eight teams — six of them from Europe, plus the reigning champs from South America and a 2022 semifinalist from Africa. For all the surprises we’ve had in the tournament, the repeat of a France-Argentina is looking more and more inevitable with each French win and each Argentine great escape.
But getting Switzerland and Norway into the quarterfinals — meaning Colombia and Brazil had to be dispatched in the Round of 16 — qualify as unexpected results, and are a reminder that nothing is 100% scripted as pundits expect.
Between Thursday and Saturday, the world gets four matches that will winnow what started as a field of 48 teams down to the final four. It’s hard to know what exactly will happen in the coming days, but some clues have been dispensed throughout the tournament that may manifest at this crucial juncture.
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Quarterfinal Best Prediction Market Trades
Starting with a quarterfinal matchup that could have been a final on Thursday, the four matches are setting up for excellent soccer.
First, that dynamic matchup between France and Morocco brings us back to the 2022 semifinal, with many of the same players involved. Then, on Friday, it’s an all-Europe match as one of the tournament favorites, Spain, face a Belgium team that struggled in the group stage but combined for seven goals in the knockout rounds so far to eliminate Senegal and the United States.
Finally, on Saturday, we get a doubleheader, as Norway and England duel in Miami — douse yourself in sunblock, fans! — and Argentina meets the Swiss in Kansas City.
Kylian Mbappé scores a goal? Yes (0.55¢ on Kalshi)
So far, for France in the 2026 World Cup, Kylian Mbappé has been the protagonist, scoring in four of France’s five matches, only missing out on scoring against Norway, where Ousmane Dembélé bagged a hat trick in 32 minutes to set a World Cup record.
Determining the final outcome of the France-Morocco matchup is a challenge. Given the attacking prowess of both teams, it’s not out of the question to predict a 3-2 final, though which team will move on isn’t a given. The possible absence of Ismael Saibari, who left Morocco’s 3-0 win over Canada prematurely with a hamstring injury, would likely tip the balance to France, though the Atlas Lions have plenty of other players who can get goals. Midfielder Azzedine Ounahi scored a brace against Les Rouges, and striker Soufiane Rahimi added the dagger goal late to send Morocco through.
If there’s one thing that seems certain, though, it’s Mbappé adding to his World Cup tally and once again taking certain stage. Even against a Paraguay team set to stymie him by whatever means necessary, he took advantage of seemingly the one call to go France’s way and buried the resulting penalty kick to get out of a balmy Philadelphia with a 1-0 win.
Will both Spain and Belgium score in regulation? Yes (0.53¢ on Kalshi)
It’s persisting as of the most remarkable stats of the entire 2026 World Cup: Through five matches, Spain is the only team in the tournament that hasn’t allowed a single goal — including the 1-0 win over Portugal that got them into this match.
If you were just building off evidence the group stages, in which both Spain and especially Belgium struggled to score, you might take the no side of this equation. It’s most likely going to be a low-scoring affair — which will bring us to a related prediction question from this match — but given that Spain’s been able to find clutch goals from multiple players, and given that Belgium’s been using Romelu Lukaku as a late-game super-sub, both Spain and Belgium should be able to find at least one goal before extra time starts.
Will over 2.5 goals be scored by Spain and Belgium in regulation? No (0.48¢ on Kalshi)
Whether one of the teams ekes out a 1-0 win or they slog to a 1-1 draw, those outcomes favor a prediction question that’s pretty much 50/50.
Given what the teams have done so far, though, this is what we predict: Spain, leading all teams at the tournament with 59% possession, will keep control of the ball and look to more patiently mete out its attacks — as it’s only 30th in its attempts at goal conversion rate, though it’s tied for fourth in attempts on target.
Belgium, meanwhile, has been one of the most doggedly determined defensive teams in the tournament, being 5th in forced turnovers and 6th in defensive pressures applied. (Spain, by contrast, is 1st in forced turnovers but 15th in defensive pressures applied – lower than Jordan at 14th, which only had three matches to accumulate its numbers, with one of those teams being Argentina.)
Will both England and Norway score in the second half? Yes (0.39¢ on Kalshi)
Through five matches so far, though England was entirely held goalless in a scoreless draw with Ghana, it’s managed 11 goals in its other four matches — and seven of those were in the second half, including a Harry Kane PK once the Three Lions were reduced to 10 men in their 3-2 takedown of Mexico.
Similarly, though five matches for Norway, that team has scored 12, getting at least a goal in each one. Seven of those 12 goals have come in the second half, in large part because that’s when Erling Haaland seems to be doing his best work.
As with the France-Morocco matchup, this match promises to be a high-scoring affair, especially with Golden Boot candidates on either side. While it’s unlikely that either Kane or Haaland will surpass Mbappé or Messi — especially with only one of them advancing to a semifinal — it’s likely that both will find their way to goal. And, if it isn’t them coming through in the second half, other players are poised to keep the trendlines going.
Will Argentina win in regular time? Yes (0.56¢ on Kalshi)
If you’re playing Switzerland in this World Cup, you better have a finisher.
Colombia didn’t have good finishing, and therefore got taken to penalties after a scoreless draw over 120 minutes. Similarly, Canada found it challenging to break through the Swiss defense, only scoring once in a 2-1 win for the European side, allowing them to stay in Vancouver for three matches in a row, including a 2-0 Round of 32 win over Algeria. Opponents have managed either zero goals or one goal in each of their five contests so far.
But Switzerland hasn’t yet faced a team like Argentina, which scored three goals late after being down 2-0 to salvage its second straight 3-2 knockout match win over Egypt, after going into extra time to get the same scoreline against Cabo Verde.
As long as Lionel Messi doesn’t have to step up to the spot — where he’s missed two penalty kick attempts already this World Cup — he’s capable of scoring, with eight goals through five matches to lead the Golden Boot race. It’s not only Messi, though — as the extra time goals and late-game flurry against Egypt showed, multiple Albiceleste players can get in on the attack. =
Switzerland will do its best to muck up the match and try to take it to a final sequence of penalty kicks, but Argentina should find just enough magic to get into a semifinal against the England-Norway winner. (And given the historical matchups we’re getting in this tournament, England-Argentina just feels right.)
Photo Credit: REUTERS
