Aaron Rodgers Player Props & Picks for Monday Night Football vs Jets (9/11/23)

Get Aaron Rodgers player prop picks & odds for the (9/11/23) matchup against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

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Aaron Rodgers Player Prop Picks Vs. Jets

On Monday night, Aaron Rodgers will make his debut for the New York Jets after spending 18 years in Green Bay. Of course, the NFL put Rodgers in primetime for this monumental game, and there are tons of ways to get action on him tonight. Rodgers faces a very good Bills defense that could hold him down, but can he transcend the matchup?

In this article, I’ll take a look at the top player prop markets for Rodgers on Monday night. We’ll have a ton of great player prop and various betting content on the site and the Lineups YouTube page for this Monday Night Football game. Let’s get to work.

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 234.5 Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers only went over this number in five of his 17 games last season, so right away, I’m leaning towards the under. It wouldn’t be shocking to see there be some inconsistencies with the Jets offense out of the gates given the new quarterback and play caller – they’ll need time to put things together.

This is also a tough matchup for Rodgers. The Bills ranked just 18th in passing success rate allowed last year, but the trio of Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer are now healthy, meaning their pass defense should be improved. Rodgers lacks chemistry with his receivers in New York, which could create issues.

When Rodgers faced the Bills last season, he was held to 203 passing yards, and that was with the Bills dealing with injuries in the secondary. I’d lean towards the under here and look for other ways to attack ancillary markets that don’t include this prop.

The Verdict: Lean Under

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 21.5 Passing Completions and 33.5 Passing Attempts

While the Bills’ secondary is much healthier now, Buffalo is without Von Miller, their best pass rusher. With Miller out, we can expect a much higher blitz rate for Buffalo to compensate for their lack of pass rush. Rodgers is surgical against the blitz, ranking 2nd in PFF grade and big-time throw rate last season.

The Bills should also have a very strong run defense, especially with the addition of defensive tackle Poona Ford. Jets running back Breece Hall is still banged up, so perhaps we see a bit more of a “run through the air” approach for New York. I can see Rodgers hitting the over here but not on his yardage.

The Verdict: Lean Over

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Aaron Rodgers was under this number in five straight games to close out last season, but he had hit the over in nine of 11 games prior to that stretch. Rodgers will be looking to put on a show in his opening game for the Jets, and I’d bank on the team throwing in the red zone rather than handing the ball off.

The Bills allowed 1.3 passing touchdowns per game last year, which ranked 14th in the NFL, but Rodgers threw for two scores against them while with Green Bay. Rodgers has a bona fide WR1 in Garrett Wilson in New York, which he didn’t have last season, so I can see him hitting the over on this prop.

The Verdict: Lean Over

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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