NFL Anytime Touchdown Odds & Best Bets: Week 9 Anytime TD Expert Picks & Predictions (11/5/23)

Get Anytime Touchdown player prop picks & odds for the (11/5/23) NFL Sunday slate.

Anytime Touchdown Player Prop Picks

Check out below for Week 9 Anytime Touchdown best bets. In this prop, the goal is to select a player who scores at least one rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game (passing touchdowns do not count for QBs). 

Michael Thomas Anytime TD (+240 FD)

The 2019 NFL Offensive Player of the Year only owns one touchdown through eight games; however, he’s had some poor touchdown luck. Thomas leads New Orleans in red zone targets and is tied 11th across the NFL in inside the ten-yard-line targets. 

Chicago’s defense ranks 31st in opponent dropback expected points added (EPA) per play and 30th in opponent net yards gained per passing play. Most importantly, the Bears have surrendered the second most passing touchdowns at 2.1 per game. Meanwhile, Chicago’s surprisingly stout defensive line has given up 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game and ranks second in opponent rush EPA per play. Essentially, targeting receivers to score against the Bears is extremely wise. 

Thomas must score about 29 percent of the time based on his odds in order for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+140 Caesars) & Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+270 FD)

CeeDee Lamb is on pace for 1,617 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. The 2x Pro Bowler ranks 6th in yards per route run, 15th in yards after the catch per reception and 7th in overall receiving grade (per PFF, min. 30 targets). Meanwhile, Jake Ferguson is tied for the 5th most red zone targets across the NFL. Dak Prescott loves to find his tight ends, which bodes well for Ferguson. 

They face a pitiful Eagles secondary that has surrendered the third most passing touchdowns per game. Factor in Philadelphia’s elite defensive line and Dallas’ uninspiring rushing attack, and the Cowboys should primarily score via aerial assaults here. 

Lamb must score about 41 percent of the time, while Ferguson sits at 27 percent of the time. 

Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-110 Caesars)

Since Jonathan Taylor started ramping up his usage two games ago, he’s averaged 5.6 yards per rush and appears as explosive as ever. The 2021 scrimmage yards leader currently paces the NFL in yards after contact per attempt among backs who have matched or exceeded his 44 carries (per PFF). 

He faces an atrocious Panthers run defense that easily ranks dead last in opponent rush EPA per play. The gap between them and 31st is roughly equal to the gap between 31st and 17th. Carolina has given up the most rushing touchdowns per game (2) and the 5th largest yards per carry. Jonathan Taylor should feast here.

He needs to score about 52 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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