Baker Mayfield NFL Player Props & Picks For Monday Night Football (9/25/23)

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. Check out below for Baker Mayfield player props odds and best bets.

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Will Baker Mayfield have a huge passing night against the reigning NFC champs?

Baker Mayfield Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-125 BMGM)

Philadelphia’s run defense is imposing to say the least with mammoths Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter anchoring the defensive line. Therefore, opponents have been testing an Eagles secondary that lost a key piece over the off-season in safety CJ Gardner-Johnson and just lost cornerback Avonte Maddox to injury. Jalen Hurts, an elite offensive line, and exceptional weapons are causing Philadelphia’s offense to print points too, so opposing teams must throw to keep pace. As a result, Philadelphia is allowing a whopping 49 pass attempts per game.

While Baker Mayfield likely won’t approach that figure, he should comfortably clear 33.5 attempts. He’s hit 34 attempts in both weeks so far, and his offensive line is superior in pass protection over run blocking. Given the favorable matchup and game script, look for Mayfield to air it out here.

Baker Mayfield Over 21.5 Passing Completions (-115 DK)

As stated above, the Eagles are giving up a ton of passing attempts, which has resulted in opponents averaging 33 completions per game. Of the 32 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks per PFF, Mayfield ranks 10th in adjusted completion percentage and 17th in average depth of target. In other words, he’s working the short and intermediate areas of the field and steadily completing pass by pass, which helps him rack up completions. Mayfield also has the fourth lowest pressure to sack ratio per PFF, so he’s extending drives and completion opportunities by avoiding devastating sacks.

Based on the expected game script, Mayfield should hit the over on both attempts and completions. He must hit 22 completions about 53 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+160 DK)

Given Philadelphia’s elite run defense and defensive line, Tampa Bay likely recognizes that throwing is their best chance in the red zone. Other teams have followed this path too; the Eagles are allowing 3.5 passing touchdowns per game – the most in the NFL. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still an effective duo, and pass-catching back Rachaad White is sneaky in the flat. Mayfield has the weapons to move the ball and find a target in the end zone. He must do so about 38 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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