Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/5/23)

The Chicago Bears battle the Washington Commanders in Thursday Night Football (10/5/23). Get Bears vs. Commanders First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Bears vs. Commanders game?

DJ Moore First Bears TD (+450 BMGM) & First TD (+1300 FD)

New acquisition DJ Moore paces Chicago in target share, receptions, and reception yards. He has scored Chicago’s first touchdown in each of their last two games, which is unsurprising considering his chemistry with Justin Fields. 

Washington’s defense ranks 31st in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score and 24th in opponent dropback expected points added per play. Their defensive line featuring four former first round picks (Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat) is the strength of the defense, so an aerial attack will be far more successful.

Moore has to score Chicago’s first touchdown about 18 percent of the time and the game’s first touchdown about 7 percent of the time for the bets to hold a positive expected value. 

Cole Kmet First Bears TD (+800 BMGM) 

After easily securing the most Chicago reception touchdowns last season, Kmet is currently tied with Moore in target share and receiving touchdowns while being only one reception behind him. He’s coming off a two-touchdown performance against Denver, and Chicago’s offense is finally starting to gain momentum. 

As stated above, the Bears will find more success through the air, so Moore and Kmet are lined up for big games. Kmet must score Chicago’s first touchdown about 11 percent of the time. 

Terry McLaurin First Commanders TD (+600 BMGM)

McLaurin leads Washington in target share, receptions and reception yards while being tied for the most receiving touchdowns. He has notched over 1,000 yards in each of the past three seasons, although Sam Howell is limiting McLaurin’s impact so far this season. Per PFF, only Bryce Young and Daniel Jones have a lower frequency of 20-plus yard throws. 

However, McLaurin faces an abysmal Bears defense that ranks 31st in opponent dropback expected points added per play, 30th in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score, and has allowed the second most passing touchdowns. Look for McLaurin to shred Chicago through the air and get back on track. 

He must score Washington’s first touchdown about 14 percent of the time here. 

Jahan Dotson First Commanders TD (+700 BMGM)

Dotson is right there with McLaurin in terms of target share, and the Penn State product’s specialty is scoring touchdowns. As a rookie last year, Dotson posted seven touchdowns on only 61 targets. He currently paces Washington in red zone targets and inside the ten-yard-line targets, and the gap isn’t close. 

Dotson should torch Chicago’s defense too, and he must score Washington’s first touchdown about 12 percent of the time. Overall, playing both McLaurin and Dotson for the Commanders first touchdown is the play. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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