Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders kicks off this Thursday at 8:15pm EST in Landover as a home game for the Commanders. Washington is currently a -6.5 favorite and -250 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44.5. Expect Justin Fields and DJ Moore to continue to build their connection while Brian Robinson Jr is set to run wild as valuable player props in this Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders matchup.
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Just when Chicago Bears fans thought it couldn’t get any worse, they blew a lead late to the Denver Broncos and are now 0-4 to start the season. As if their floor couldn’t get any lower, they are now a +6.5 underdog to the Washington Commanders for Thursday Night Football. Even with a stout defensive line, Justin Fields should continue to find success through the air to his favorite target DJ Moore against a weak Washington secondary.
DJ Moore Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
The Washington defense is two sides to a coin as they back a brunt of their success to their defensive line. Chase Young and company have done a masterful job at generating pressure, forcing opposing quarterbacks to throw on the run and in a collapsing pocket.
The issue for this unit is that their secondary has failed to help out their front four with a lack of coverage. Their Def Pass DVOA creeps back to 24th per FTN while Def Pass EPA ranks 23rd.
That puts Justin Fields in an intriguing position to succeed should their offensive line give him time in the pocket. When he is given time, he has done a good job at hitting his go-to target in stride with DJ Moore streaking across the field.
Expect more of the same connection, even if Justin Fields has to scramble to the side against the Washington edge rushers. When the Commanders linebackers dip down, DJ Moore will find himself with more open field as he exploits the gaps in coverage. This number has already crept up to 50.5 so be sure to have multiple sportsbooks and always buy the best available number.
DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown
Correlating this prop to the belief in him having a big day, expect DJ Moore to garner plenty of opportunities within the red zone. Especially with the Commanders rush defense having a massive advantage in that regard, forcing the Bears into more throwing opportunities when they get within the 20-yard line.
WHAT A GRAB BY DJ MOORE 😮pic.twitter.com/oCBNqeFQgn
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 1, 2023
DJ Moore has already steadily seen an increase in expected targets, now being in a position to receive even more as he dissects the Washington secondary. Even in a shortened field when the secondary can afford to stretch out for more coverage, the Washington linebackers will be forced to be anchored against Fields rushing ability which gives Moore a chance to slip by in the end zone.
Justin Fields Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been an odd start to the year to say the least about Justin Fields. Many expected him to continue to develop into an elite dual threat quarterback, but that has yet to be the case as he has opted to stay in the pocket. Even when it collapses, taking sacks at a high rate instead of bouncing out.
He now may be forced to stay in that pocket as the Washington defensive line generates their pressure from the edges. This forces Fields into longer distances to bounce out to the side, giving Washington’s linebackers ample time to make the read and cut him off to negate the run. Factor that with the belief with a heavier dose of the pass and rush attempts will be mitigated to the benefit of the under.
Brian Robinson Jr Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
It’s no secret that the Bears are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 31st in Def DVOA. A big cause for their inability to find any success on that end comes from their lack of backfield pressure. They rank 27th in Blitz and 30th in Pressure per FB Ref.
With their defensive line failing to push back, Brian Robinson Jr should find himself with plenty of gaps on the line to exploit and get to the second level of the defense with ease. This may result in decent sized chunks at a time, chipping away at the over as the Commanders lead back.