Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders kicks off this Thursday at 8:15pm EST in Landover as a home game for the Commanders. The Bears are currently a +7 underdog and +240 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44.5. Read on for more Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders best bets and predictions as the Commanders look to secure the outright win as the perfect Wong Teaser piece.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Prediction & Best Bet
Should Ron Rivera have a brain, then the Commanders could realistically be 3-1 with a massive win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The offense took advantage of the Eagles struggles with coverage, burning them across the middle and outsides when they sucked in. This led to a late touchdown to potentially seal it with a two-point conversion, but Rivera opted into the extra point try instead. A head scratching decision as the sizable underdog and one that ended up burning them in overtime.
Still, it was impressive to see the Commanders compete with one of the best teams in football. Especially on the offensive end with Sam Howell practically playing as a rookie under center. While not actually a rookie, this is Howell’s first prolonged stint as a starter and has looked sharp at times throughout the year.
They now get the benefit of hosting one of the worst defenses in football. It’s not just bad for the Bears, it’s near league worst bad for Chicago. They rank 31st in Def DVOA per FTN as well as 31st in Def EPA.
Those struggles can especially be pointed towards their inability to generate any sort of pressure to opposing backfields. Chicago currently ranks 30th in Pressure per FB REF and 32nd in Def Sack Rate. That means Sam Howell will find himself with plenty of time in the pocket, not having to scramble or throw under pressure situations.
It’s especially important for Howell to avoid those pressure situations as we saw how bad it can get when he was under duress against the Buffalo Bills. Factor in the Commanders ability to find success on the ground with Brian Robinson and couple it with friendlier passing windows and the Washington offense should have no issue with moving the ball down the field into scoring position. Pair them with the Detroit Lions in a Wong Teaser and you should get the Commanders at -1 and Lions -3.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Prediction & Best Bet: Commanders -1 Teaser Piece
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
How low is this Bears floor? Oddsmakers are adamant about it getting worse as they opened the Commanders as a -7 favorite. That’s a drastic increase from the lookahead, originally sitting at -1.5. Bettors have stopped the steam at the key football number, betting the Bears back down to +6.5 in some shops as of writing.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a slightly slow rate as oddsmakers opened the number at 42.5. Bettors believe points will come at a faster pace, backing the over up to 44.5 as of writing. This market is intriguing as the Bears pass attack is actually in a friendly position to succeed against the weak Washington secondary should their offensive line negate the Commanders defensive line.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Key Injuries
It’s a contrast of injuries as the Bears deal with questionable tags to their secondary while Washington designated questionable tags to their receivers. This includes Eddie Jackson for the Bears while Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel are questionable for the Commanders.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Key Matchups
Can the Commanders front seven slow down Justin Fields?
Justin Fields Vs. Commanders Front Seven
It’s been an odd year for Justin Fields as many expected the quarterback to continue to burn opposing defenses with his legs. It’s not certain if his tendency to stay in the pocket has been due to coaching or a personal decision, but it’s simply not working for the dual threat quarterback.
Chase Young = all the way back pic.twitter.com/FxMrVqfapg
— Ethan Cadeaux (@Ethan_Cadeaux) October 1, 2023
Even more disastrous, the Commanders defensive success stems from their pressure from their defensive line. Especially from their edge rushers, potentially canceling out bounce outs from Fields should he opt back into scrambling. With a prolonged run to the side, this gives Washington’s linebackers extra time to make the read and crash back down to the line of scrimmage.