The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday (10/1/23). Get the latest betting odds for Bengals Vs. Titans as well as our best bet which is Titans +2.5.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction & Best Bet
The Bengals finally got off the schneid on Monday night with a much needed primetime win over the Rams. Cincinnati got their revenge for their Super Bowl loss two years ago and bounced back from an 0-2 start, but there are still plenty of red flags for their offense.
Joe Burrow has struggled to gain any traction this season as he’s recovering from an offseason calf injury. He’s registered just 4.7 yards per attempt, which ranks second-worst among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Burrow’s -9% completion percentage over expectation is dead last despite an average of 6.5 air yards (31st).
In other words, he hasn’t been throwing the ball downfield and he still hasn’t been an efficient passer. It’s obvious that the injury has hampered his passing efficiency. While Burrow is playing through the pain, he’s not capable of taking advantage of a Tennessee pass defense ranked 26th by EPA.
Cincinnati will need to rely on its run game more, but Joe Mixon will be running right into a front seven allowing just 2.6 yards per carry, the lowest mark in the NFL. The Titans are also fourth in both EPA and success rate against the run.
Tennessee’s offense hasn’t looked pretty, but context is important – they’ve played two of the top three defenses in the NFL by success rate. The Bengals rank 24th in that same metric, so they should provide a breath of fresh air for an offense that has plenty of talent.
The Bengals got the big win on Monday Night Football, but I’m happy to fade them here on the road against Mike Vrabel. One of the best coaches in the NFL, Vrabel has a stellar 27-18-1 ATS record as an underdog. Fresh off a non cover as a dog, let’s bet on Vrabel to lead the Titans to a cover with Cincinnati’s offense still stuck in the mud.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction & Best Bet: Titans +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds
CIN @ TEN
Oct. 01, 12:00 PM
Odds updated October 1st, 2023, at 2:45 pm
The Bengals are currently 2.5-point road favorites in this game, and this line has moved around quite a bit. The total sits at a low number of 41 points, which makes sense as the Bengals and Titans haven’t been the most potent offenses to start this season.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans Key Injuries
While Joe Burrow is dealing with his calf injury, the rest of the team has avoided the injury bug for the most part. Wide receiver Charlie Jones and tight end Irv Smith are on the injury report and listed as questionable.
Tennessee has more injuries to monitor. Wide receiver Treylon Burks hit the injury report with a knee injury while edge rusher Harold Landry, defensive tackle Teair Tart, and cornerback Elijah Molden are all listed as questionable with various ailments.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans Key Matchups
The Bengals and Titans haven’t played in barnburners to start the season, but they both have key players they will need to rely on to get a win this week. Let’s take a look at some of the big matchups to monitor in this game.
Derrick Henry Vs. Bengals’ Run Defense
It’s been a tough start to the season for the Titans’ star running back Derrick Henry – he has just 163 rushing yards through three games with just a 3.2 YPC average. 139 of his 163 yards have come after contact, so his offensive line isn’t giving him much help.
A matchup with the Bengals isn’t necessarily the best opportunity for a bounce back. Henry finished with just 38 yards on 17 carries against Cincinnati last year (2.2 YPC). However, the Bengals have been vulnerable on the ground this year – they rank 26th in rushing EPA allowed.
Henry won’t be kept down forever, and it wouldn’t shock anyone to see him come through with a big performance this week. Cincinnati will likely load the box to slow him down, which will create downfield play-action opportunities for Ryan Tannehill.
DERRICK HENRY TOUCHDOWN 👑 👑 pic.twitter.com/yg4MbThkwr
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 17, 2023
Ja’Marr Chase Vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting
After a very slow start to the season, Ja’Marr Chase exploded with 12 catches for 141 yards on Monday night. I expect Burrow to continue to lean on his top receiver against a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 26th in EPA and 29th in success rate.
One bright spot for the Tennessee pass defense has been cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting who’s tied for sixth among qualified corners in PFF coverage grades. Murphy-Bunting has allowed just 82 yards in coverage through three games this season.
The Titans will likely put Murphy-Bunting on Chase in this game as he’s the Bengals’ top wide receiver, and his ability to slow down the All Pro wideout will be crucial for Tennessee’s ability to pull off the upset at home.
Ja'Marr Chase last night:
26.1 FANTASY POINTS
— The FFPC (@FFPC) September 26, 2023