Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds, Depth Charts (9/24/23)
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The Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders are off to very different starts than projected, giving each squad all the more motivation to keep pushing as week three approaches. Get Bills vs. Commanders odds, predictions, and picks below as our best bet is over 44.5 points.
Bills vs. Commanders Prediction & Best Bet
There are no bad wins in the NFL, but the Washington Commanders are just about the weakest 2-0 you’ll find in the league right now. They failed to really pull away from the openly tanking Arizona Cardinals in the first game of the season, and then pulled off a nice comeback against the floundering Broncos, but they almost let Denver steal the game right back in the waning seconds. This team has some talent, but is not likely destined for greatness and is set to experience its first real test by playing the Buffalo Bills, a perennial contender.
Ironically enough, the Bills enter this game with the worse record of the two teams after dropping an opening day shocker to the Jets, but they righted the ship with a drubbing of the Raiders in week two. Josh Allen shook off his turnover woes for a week, but they’re still just simmering under the surface rather than gone, and the Bills still have holes that a team better-equipped than the Raiders will be able to expose.
The question is whether or not that team is Washington, and to a degree, I think it is. The Commanders have the edge rushers to make Allen’s life hard, and the skill players to hit the Bills defense where it’s weakest. I’m not saying they’ll pull off the upset, but they could make this one close enough that I’m not willing to pick Buffalo by a touchdown on the road.
The better play here is on the over for a total of 44.5, as both teams will have chances to score. We’ll dig more into Washington’s approach to the Buffalo defense more below, and even if Allen turns the ball over, you can expect him to make some big plays and grab points out of thin air as well. There could be pace issues with two teams that like to run, but with a relatively low number, the offenses should do enough to help this wager hit.
Bills vs. Commanders Prediction & Best Bet: over 44.5 points
Bills vs. Commanders Betting Odds
The Bills are -6.5 road favorites, with -110 odds for each squad to cover. You can also grab either side for -110 odds when it comes to the total, set at 44.5 points.
Bills vs. Commanders Key Injuries
While the Commanders are pretty healthy this early on, the Bills are still missing legendary edge rusher Von Miller, while star safety Micah Hyde and edge threat Leonard Floyd are also banged up.
Bills vs. Commanders Key Matchups
When it comes to taking down the Bills, it’s going to come down to how well the Commanders can make Buffalo play on their terms on both sides of the ball. Let’s take a look at how some individual matchups can impact their ability to make that happen.
Commanders Rushing Offense vs. Bills Run Defense
The Commanders offense quietly features one of the better arrays of skill weapons you’ll find in today’s NFL. Unfortunately, Sam Howell simply may not have what it takes to consistently deliver catchable passes to the receivers, so a strong running game with the two-headed back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson is absolutely vital. After Washington eased Robinson’s transition into the league as he was not only a rookie, but recovering from gunshot wounds in his leg, he’s fully taken the lead role and has already run for 146 yards and two scores, while Gibson is behind Howell and Curtis Samuel on the team rushing list.
The o-line has also done a great job to start the year; PFF considers them to be the sixth-best run blocking unit thus far. Left tackle Charles Leno Jr. has been a leader thus far after a nice 2022, after performing poorly in the run game in 2022, while the rest of the linemen have performed adequately.
They’ll have chances to run the ball against a Bills defense that PFF ranks as the 24th-best run stopping unit, due in large part to allowing multiple explosive runs to a Jets offense that wasn’t even pretending to threaten with the pass. Edge Greg Rousseau has been an excellent run stopper so far, but things drop off quickly; linebacker Matt Milano is the only other serviceable run defender in the front seven so far this season, leaving Robinson with plenty of inside running opportunities.
Bills Offensive Line Vs. Commanders Pass Rush
While advanced metrics love Josh Allen in snaps under pressure because he does find big plays, he also commits tons of turnovers in those situations, which are how upsets like this one happen. The Raiders pressured Allen just nine times last week, and didn’t force a single interception or turnover worthy play out of him- that’s not going to cut it. By contrast, the Jets pressured him a whopping 21 times, 42% of his dropbacks in that game, leading to two turnover worthy plays, and of course pulled off the upset with Zach Wilson in the game.
Chase Young is back for the Commanders, and provided an immediate spark to a pass rush that was decidedly anemic in week one with him out of the lineup, as fellow edge Montez Sweat as well as d-linemen Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne started slow. They’ll be attacking a Bills o-line that ranks sixth in pass protection thus far, per PFF. That group is headlined by the left side, composed of tackle Dion Dawkins and guard Connor McGovern, while right tackle Spencer Brown has struggled mightily.. With that Washington edge duo bearing down, these tackles will have their hands full and could very well allow some pressure to Allen.
Bills Depth Chart
QB: Josh Allen
RB1: James Cook
RB2: Damien Harris
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabe Davis
SWR: Deonte Harty
TE1: Dawson Knox
Commanders Depth Chart
QB: Sam Howell
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas
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