Get Buffalo Bills Vs. New York Jets player prop picks & odds for the (9/11/23) matchup.
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Buffalo Bills Vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks
The Bills and Jets both boast elite defenses, so this game could be on the lower scoring side, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the player prop markets. I love divisional matchups as we can get more of a sense for how teams match up since they play each other much more often. Check out our YouTube channel for further discussion of these props and many more on the Week 1 slate.
Garrett Wilson Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
I’m not buying everything the Jets are selling right now and I have some real long term questions for this team, but I’m very confident in one thing – Garrett Wilson is about to have a huge season. Wilson finished his rookie year with over 1,100 yards despite 16.3% of his targets being deemed inaccurate, the fourth-highest rate in the league (min. 100 targets).
Wilson had just two drops on 139 targets and still somehow ended with just a 59.7% catch rate. The target quality simply wasn’t there last season as Wilson suffered through poor quarterback play through the entire year.
That won’t be the case anymore. Aaron Rodgers had some difficulties last season, but even with Rodgers not at his peak levels anymore, he’s still a massive upgrade. He’s also been a quarterback who hyper-targets his number one receiver – Davante Adams had a target share of 31.8% in 2020 and 28.3% in 2021.
The Bills’ secondary should be better this year with Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer all healthy now, but I’m not sure how much it matters. The Bills will need to blitz to get pressure on Rodgers with Von Miller out, and Rodgers was surgical against the blitz last year, ranking second in big-time throw rate at 5.9%.
When Rodgers is blitzed, he’ll be looking in the direction of Wilson, and I believe he’s live to go for 100+ yards against any opponent. The Ohio State product is on his way to becoming one of the top receiver talents in the NFL, and he’ll show that on Monday.
Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Jets finished the 2022 season with the third-ranked defense by success rate. They shifted from a Cover 3 defense to Cover 4 and led the league with a 31.3% usage rate of quarters coverage – their number one priority was to keep everything in front of them and not allow big plays.
Josh Allen struggles against this defense, completing just 55.7% of his passes across two matchups, so I don’t expect the scheme to be any different on Monday night. With receivers covered downfield, Allen had to turn to his legs to pick up yardage, and he went over this number in both games against the Jets last season.
Allen averaged 66.5 rushing yards across those two games vs New York last year, so you can argue this line is priced much too low. With Allen’s elbow no longer an issue, I don’t expect there to be any qualms from the coaching staff about running in this crucial divisional primetime matchup.
Gabriel Davis Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Jets’ elite defense allowed the fewest yards and catches to wide receivers last season, and they held Davis to just 33 and 31 yards in their two matchups last season. Their Cover 4 defense is the antithesis to what enables deep ball players like Davis to be productive.
Davis only went over this number in 7 of 17 games last season, just a 41% hit rate. I believe the Jets’ defense will be much more conducive to receivers like Dalton Kincaid, Deonte Harty, and Khalil Shakir finding success out of the slot rather than Davis downfield.
The one concern here is that the Jets’ safeties aren’t great. Chuck Clark was brought in to be an upgrade at the position, but he suffered a season-ending injury. Adrian Amos was signed late in the offseason to replace him, and he ranked just 88th out of 96 qualified safeties per PFF. Jordan Whitehead was just 50th.
Either of those safeties could make a mistake resulting in a deep ball catch by Davis, but I see that as a low percentage outcome given how fundamentally sound the New York defense is. Allen likely also won’t have enough time in the pocket against the Jets’ lethal pass rush to find Davis downfield.