Two divisional rivals square off on Monday night as Josh Allen’s Bills travel to take on Aaron Rodgers’s Jets. The Bills are currently 2.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 45.5 points. In this article, you can find the best strategy and picks for a Bills vs. Jets Same Game Parlay.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Same Game Parlay (9/11/23)
I bet the under for this game at 47 points, and it’s now down to 45.5 points. I expect it to be a lower-scoring game, and the market reacted as such, so keep that in mind with your Same Game Parlay picks. Here, we’re looking for correlated plays that will make sense in conjunction with one another. Let’s find some winners.
Josh Allen 50+ Rushing Yards
The Jets’ defense was outstanding last season, primarily because of their ability to get pressure with four rushers. I believe that is the key to modern defense in the NFL. The Jets blitzed just 14.9% of the time, the lowest rate in the league, but got pressure on 25.4% of opponent dropbacks, the third-highest rate.
As a result of their ability to get pressure without blitzing, the Jets can play fundamentally sound back-end coverage geared towards not allowing the big play. New York was third in rate of two-high coverage (50.9%). That complicates things for Allen, who led the NFL with 104 passing attempts 20+ yards downfield last year per PFF.
Without much of a willingness to take the checkdowns, Allen often turns to his legs to pick up yardage against these types of defenses. He had 86 and 47 rushing yards in the two matchups against the Jets last year, and I expect him to clear the prop of 35.5 yards easily. However, for the purposes of this SGP, let’s take an alternate total of 50+ yards, a number he hit six times last season.
Gabriel Davis Under 46.5 Receiving Yards
As I discussed above, the Jets’ defense is vulnerable to underneath passing, not deep shots. That’s problematic for Gabriel Davis, who saw 29.2% of his targets and 51.7% of his yards come on throws 20+ yards downfield. Davis was held to 33 and 31 receiving yards against the Jets last season.
In the first game against the Jets last year, Allen completed just one of eight passes of 20+ yards. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey then realized that was a losing bet against this defense, and Allen had just two attempts and no completions on throws 20+ yards downfield. They won the second game but not the first, so perhaps we see that strategy again of avoiding downfield throws altogether.
Regardless of the approach, the bottom line is that the Jets won’t be allowing too many deep balls to be completed in this game, and Davis will be the most hurt by that of all the Bills receivers. If you can find a book that lets you take alternate unders on receiving yards, I’d consider that as well.
Garrett Wilson 80+ Receiving Yards
This selection doesn’t have much to do with the defensive schematics I was discussing above, and I’ll keep this relatively simple – Garrett Wilson is outstanding. He finished his rookie season with over 1,100 yards despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league. In four of his final seven games of the season, he finished with 80+ receiving yards.
The Bills should have a strong defense with the trio of Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer healthy, but I’m not sure how much it will matter. Aaron Rodgers hyper-targeted Davante Adams for years and has compared Wilson to his former teammate. A similar role is plausible in an offense devoid of other high-level pass catchers.
Bills-Jets SGP Betting Card
- Josh Allen 50+ Yards (+182)
- Gabriel Davis Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Garrett Wilson 80+ Receiving Yards (+128)
Full SGP Odds: +937 ($10 to win $93.71)
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