Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/13/23)
The Denver Broncos face the Buffalo Bills in Monday Night Football (11/13/23). Get Broncos vs. Bills First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.
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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Broncos vs. Bills game?
Stefon Diggs First TD (+600 BMGM) & First Bills TD (+380 FD)
Diggs has notched 10+ targets in six of nine games, and the veteran entered the week leading the league in receptions. It’s clear that the Allen to Diggs connection remains as strong as ever. He ranks sixth across the NFL in red zone targets and second in receiving touchdowns too, so his first touchdown equity is enormous.
He faces a Broncos defense that has allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns per game and easily ranks dead last in opponent dropback expected points added (EPA) per play. Denver’s defense is playing better lately, but Buffalo’s dynamic offense should trample them, especially Diggs.
He needs to score the first touchdown roughly 14 percent of the time and Buffalo’s first touchdown about 21 percent for the bets to be profitable in the long run.
Dalton Kincaid First TD (+1000 FD) & First Bills TD (+650 FD)
Dawson Knox’s injury completely opened the door for Kincaid. Over the last three games, the rookie tight end owns 26 targets, 221 receiving yards and one touchdown. He’s quickly morphing into Allen’s second option due to his reliable hands, spatial awareness and crisp routes.
Denver has surrendered the most yards and 12th most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Their secondary is a mess outside of Patrick Surtain II, and Kincaid can take advantage of Denver’s linebackers in coverage.
KIncaid must score the first touchdown roughly 9 percent of the time and Buffalo’s first touchdown about 13 percent for the bets to be profitable in the long run.
Courtland Sutton First Broncos TD (+500 FD)
Astonishingly, the Broncos have scored sixteen passing touchdowns compared to only one rushing touchdown. Courtland Sutton in particular has been Russell Wilson’s top option with Jerry Jeudy struggling mightily. Sutton owns double the touchdowns of the second best Bronco and ranks 16th across the NFL in red zone targets. His size and contested catch prowess are perfect for end zone opportunities.
Buffalo has surrendered 10 passing touchdowns compared to 6 rushing touchdowns, and their secondary took a massive hit with Tre’Davious White’s season-ending injury. Therefore, it’s more likely that Denver scores via the air, especially given their own touchdown profile.
Sutton needs to score Denver’s first touchdown about 17 percent.
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