In a matchup between possibly the two worst teams in the entire NFL, somebody has to win- probably. In one of two week four matchups between 0-3 squads, let’s see if Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or anyone else can be an individual bright spot and pick some Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears player props.
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These two defenses are both an absolute mess, so this could be a great opportunity to bet on some offensive overs. Let’s talk about why this is a good spot for Russell Wilson, and build a portfolio of anytime touchdown scorers in a game that should feature plenty of scoring.
Russell Wilson Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Wilson has quietly had a fairly strong start to the season in what needs to be a serious bounce-back campaign for him after a disastrous 2022. He’s the sixth-best QB in the league by expected points added + completion percentage above expected composite, the mark of some really nice early-season performances amidst the team’s overall struggles.
PFF also considers him a top-10 passer, and he’s sixth in the league in passer rating. In a vacuum, each of these metrics would have to be taken with a grain of salt, but taken together it’s a very solid profile for a passer who was once viewed as one of the league’s best, and has become underrated.
He’s going up against a pass defense that can very generously be described as a real NFL unit. The Bears are second to last in the league in per-snap defensive EPA, and the Broncos themselves are the ones sitting in dead last, so Wilson literally could not have an easier task ahead of him. PFF agrees here as well, as they have the Bears pass rush graded 30th in the league, and their coverage unit in 28th.
The script should include plenty of throwing, as both PFF and EPA also concur that the Bears have been nearly adequate at defending against the run. The Bears might also have a chance to run some offense themselves, meaning that airing it out could be on the menu all game long. With a solid stable of receivers including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, and Marvin Mims, Wilson will see plenty of orange downfield running free against a completely overmatched Bears secondary.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Portfolio
These are the two worst defenses in the league overall in terms of EPA and scoring defense, and they’re both bottom three in terms of yardage allowed per game. With this kind of defensive ineptitude, we can be fairly confident that this will be a touchdown fest, so let’s create a portfolio of touchdown scorers.
Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown (+145)
As rough as the beginning of this season has been for Fields as a passer, he’s still easily the Bears’ best weapon at and around the goal line. He possesses a unique blend of speed and strength that makes him absolutely lethal in short spaces, and one of his very few designed runs this season was in a goal-to-go scenario against the Bucs, resulting in a touchdown, one of just two scores on the ground for the Bears so far this season. After resolving to go out and play intuitive football, Fields should be on the run more against a less challenging opponent than the Chiefs.
Marvin Mims Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Mims’s usage absolutely has to start rising, and a game against this Bears defense is the perfect opportunity to take that leap. He’s been playing extremely well as he leads the NFL in yards per route run with 7.22. For some perspective, if you narrow the field down to qualified receivers, Tyreek Hill is sitting at a figure of 4.7. He’s caught 77% of his targets thus far, despite the fact that five of these nine balls were 20 yards or more downfield. As a veritable deep ball threat with an average depth of target of 24.7 yards, he should be able to break a Bears defense that has absolutely no ability to take away the big plays.
DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown (+240)
Moore is one of three Bears who has actually scored a touchdown, and leads the team with 170 yards and 15.5 per reception. He’s 16th among qualified receivers with an average depth of target of 14.4 yards, and like Mims, is going up against a defense with a seriously diminished ability to defend the deep ball with safety Justin Simmons out. Moore is a big, athletic presence, and was brought in to be a primary goal line threat; if the Bears offense finally gets going, he should be a big part of it.
Cole Kmet Anytime Touchdown (+260)
Kmet is tied for the team lead in targets, and he led the team in that category last season before Moore arrived. He also grabbed seven touchdowns a season ago, well ahead of Dante Pettis in second place with three. Like many Bears, Kmet has had a slow start to the season, but if the Bears are able to move the ball more than they’ve done so far and actually have some red zone opportunities, Kmet should be a big part of the approach in that part of the field.
Broncos Defense Anytime Touchdown (+550)
Yes, this one is a bit of a long shot, but it’s quite notably been a tough year for Justin Fields and the Bears offense; he’s thrown four interceptions thus far, and fumbled three times a year after leading the league in that category. When Fields commits a turnover, it’s usually about an inability to read the field rather than a physical slip-up, so the impact can be significant. Two of his four interceptions this year have already been run back for touchdowns, and it’s not hard to imagine it happening again in a game where he’ll be routinely testing the Broncos defense through the air.