Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/18/23)

The Cleveland Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Check out below for Browns vs. Steelers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers First Touchdown Odds

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will accomplish this in the Browns vs. Steelers contest?

David Njoku First Touchdown (+1300 BMGM) & First Browns Touchdown (+700 BMGM)

From Week 13 to 18 last season with Watson at quarterback, David Njoku easily led the Browns at 10 red zone targets. Across the NFL, the only pass catchers with more red zone targets during that span were Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Keenan Allen. The 6’4” hyper-athletic tight end is a massive target that can out-jump his defender on a fade route, and he’s tormented Pittsburgh recently by scoring a touchdown in each of the last three matchups. This Steelers defense allowed the fewest red zone rushing touchdowns last season while giving up the sixth most red zone passing touchdowns – another point in Njoku’s favor. Factor in reduced target competition due to Amari Cooper’s injury, and Njoku should thrive here.

Elijah Moore First Touchdown (+1200 BMGM) & First Browns Touchdown (+800 BMGM)

Moore displayed instant chemistry with Watson, as he tied for the most targets (7) among Browns players in Week One while securing two red zone targets. That doesn’t seem like much, but that’s 34 across an entire season – Kelce led the NFL last year at 30 red zone targets. The Browns are playing him in the slot and outside, so his versatility allows Cleveland to find him the optimal matchup. As stated above, Pittsburgh’s defense is probably letting up a passing touchdown instead of a rushing touchdown, which benefits Moore. The fact that the top receiver on the team that is more likely to score the first touchdown is priced at +1200 is somewhat confusing. We only need Moore to score the first touchdown about 7 percent of the time for it to have a positive expected value – that’s the case here to me.

Harrison Bryant First Touchdown (+6000 BMGM)

It’s definitely a long shot, but Bryant’s usage doesn’t justify a +6000 line. In seven career games with Watson, Bryant has secured five red zone targets. He just scored a touchdown in Week One, and Amari Cooper’s absence should boost Bryant’s snap and route percentage. And again, this Steelers defense allows aerial red zone touchdowns, which favors Bryant. We need him to score the first touchdown 1.65 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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