Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/6/23)

The Los Angeles Chargers face the New York Jets in Monday Night Football (11/6/23). Get Chargers vs. Jets First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Chargers vs. Jets game?

Keenan Allen First TD (+750 DK) & Donald Parham Jr First TD (+2000 BMGM)

Los Angeles has scored the first touchdown in 85.7 percent of their games, while New York sits at a lowly 14.2 percent. The only contest where the Jets managed to accomplish this feat was against the pitiful Giants too, who own one first touchdown as well. Therefore, targeting the Chargers is much wiser. 

Wide receivers Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton are all out, so Justin Herbert is relying on Keenan Allen more than usual. The veteran possesses 74 targets; the next best active player is Gerald Everett at 23 targets. New York’s defense is riddled with talented coverage players, so Allen has the best chance of getting open despite his matchup against Sauce Gardner. 

Because I expect Los Angeles’ pass-catchers to be tightly covered, Parham’s 6’8” frame and leaping ability will be more important than usual. The tight end only has one less red zone target than Allen and is tied with him in touchdowns, so his usage is desirable too. Grabbing +2000 odds for him is a steal. 

Finally, Los Angeles ranks 27th in run blocking per PFF, and New York’s stout defensive line has surrendered three rushing touchdowns all year. Austin Ekeler will have no room to run, and he doesn’t have long enough odds to me based on the matchup. 

Garrett Wilson First Jets TD (+420 FD) & Breece Hall First Jets TD (+260 FD)

New York’s offense ranks 31st in points scored and dead last in offensive success rate. They completely lack weapons outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and Zach Wilson doesn’t have the talent to elevate mediocre players. Therefore, targeting those two is the wise move for the remainder of the year. 

Garrett Wilson owns 50 percent of New York’s pass-catcher red zone targets, 25 percent of their touchdowns and leads the league in first read target share. Zach Wilson is rightfully leaning heavily on the star receiver, who faces a Chargers defense that ranks 30th in opponent dropback expected points added (EPA) per play. Opposing top receivers have destroyed Los Angeles all season, so Wilson is in line for a monster game here. Given the absence of a reliable second receiver, he should see nearly all of the red zone targets too. 

Meanwhile, Hall is second across the NFL in yards after contact per attempt and first in breakaway percentage (per PFF, min. 70 attempts). The ACL injury is in the past, as Hall looks extremely explosive. He owns 37.5 percent of New York’s touchdowns and has scored their first touchdown in three straight games. Although Los Angeles isn’t a turnstile against the run, Hall’s usage and talent combination is matchup proof for the Jets first touchdown prop. His work as a receiver will be crucial here too.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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