Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Check out below for Chiefs vs. Jaguars player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Trevor Lawrence.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks

The Chiefs are trying to avoid another loss, while the Jaguars seek a statement win. Which players will lead their team to victory?

Zay Jones Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120 DK)

Last season, Zay Jones had 823 yards on 121 targets and secured the 23rd most 20+ yard targets in the NFL (per PFF). The fear that new acquisition Calvin Ridley would massively slash his volume was justified, but Jones displayed his ability to compete for targets against the Colts. He produced 55 yards on 7 targets, and per Fantasy Points analyst Ryan Heath, Jones ranked 21st in First Read Target Share and 16th in Air Yards Share across the entire NFL (it’s worth noting Ridley beat him in both metrics). Those metrics are highly encouraging, and Jones has the top matchup here of the receivers.

Ridley and Christian Kirk will be marked by elite corners Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed, while Jones gets an easier matchup in Joshua Williams. Per PFF, Williams allowed a 117.1 passer rating and recorded the fewest pass breakups of the corners. The Jaguars will likely need to throw the ball a lot to match Kansas City, so Jones has a favorable projected game script as well.

Jones must get 46 yards about 54 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Evan Engram Anytime Touchdown (+275 DK)

Kansas City allowed the most red zone passing touchdowns last season, as well as the fifth most red zone completions. In addition, the Chiefs allowed the fifth most touchdowns to tight ends. Enter Evan Engram, who revived his career last season with the Jaguars. Engram hasn’t morphed into a top tight end like many expected, but he’s an incredible athlete with the leaping ability to thrive in the end zone. Ridley and Kirk will draw the defensive attention, so Engram can take advantage of his isolation opportunities.

For this prop to have a positive expected value, Engram must get a touchdown about 26 percent of the time.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135 DK)

As stated above, Kansas City bleeds passing touchdowns in the red zone. Superstar defensive tackle Chris Jones’ return also spells trouble for Jacksonville’s run game, especially with elite guard Brandon Scherff likely missing the contest. With Ridley, Kirk, Jones, Engram, and Etienne’s pass-catching abilities, Lawrence has plenty of weapons to convert too.

Finally, since I am expecting a relatively high scoring game, Lawrence should handle more scoring opportunities than usual. That’s a huge bonus because volume highly correlates with production.

For this bet to have a positive expected value, Lawrence must throw two touchdowns about 57 percent of the time.

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