Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/1/23)

The reigning Super Bowl champs travel to face the ailing New York Jets on Sunday night. Get Chiefs vs. Jets First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Chiefs vs. Jets game?

Travis Kelce First Touchdown (+425 DK)

Kelce unsurprisingly paced the NFL in red zone targets last season, and he currently ranks fifth despite missing a week of action. Kelce is an absolute force in the red zone because of his size and hands, and Mahomes always looks for the tight end first. 

The New York Jets are allowing a paltry 3.7 yards per rush, and they have yet to give up a rushing touchdown. Considering the Chiefs love to throw in the red zone, it’s a recipe for a Kansas City reception touchdown. It would also be shocking if the Jets, who are last in offensive Expected Points Added per Play, scored before the Chiefs. New York is one of four teams that have not either scored a first touchdown or scored a touchdown on their first drive (along with the Titans, Buccaneers, and Giants)

Kelce must score first about 19 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Rashee Rice First Touchdown (+1800 DK)

As stated above, it’s likely that the first touchdown is a Chiefs passing touchdown. If not Kelce, then Mahomes has been looking towards rookie Rashee Rice, who head coach Andy Reid recently praised. Rice is second on Kansas City in targets, receptions, and red zone targets, and it appears Mahomes trusts him. 

He has been stopped at the one-yard-line numerous times, which has helped disguise his value and subsequently granted a hyper-valuable +1800 line. Rice must score the first touchdown about 5 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. He’s already notched a first touchdown, and based on his projected volume, that’s a slam dunk.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams First Touchdown (+2500 DK)

This Jets offense is absolutely pitiful, and it’s largely due to inept quarterback play. WIlson sits at 30th in interception percentage, 23rd in on-target throw percentage, 25th in bad-throw percentage, and 32nd in PFF’s overall passing grade. Wilson struggles to see the field clearly, which allows disguised coverage to frequently jump the throw for a turnover. He’s also a poor decision maker under pressure, and New York’s porous offensive line has allowed him to see the highest dropback percentage under pressure at a whopping 51 percent per PFF. 

Look for Kansas City to wreak havoc and force Wilson into mistakes. Perhaps that interception or fumble turns into a defensive touchdown. Kansas City’s defense or special teams must score the first touchdown about 4 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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