Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (10/15/23)

The Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday afternoon (10/15/23). Get Colts vs. Jaguars player prop best bets below, as well as a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks

Which players on either team will obliterate their props in the Colts vs. Jaguars contest?

Calvin Ridley Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114 BetRivers) & 100+ Receiving Yards (+400 DK)

Ridley has been up and down to start the season. He has two games over 100 yards but three games at 40 yards or less. However, he has a juicy matchup here. The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the third most passing yards and fifth most completions due to their weak secondary. They simply can’t stop opponents from moving the ball through the air. Opposing top receivers have especially shredded the Colts, including Calvin Ridley in their week one matchup: 

  • Calvin Ridley – 8 receptions for 101 yards
  • Nico Collins – 7 receptions for 146 yards
  • Zay Flowers – 8 receptions for 48 yards
  • Puka Nacua – 9 receptions for 163 yards
  • DeAndre Hopkins – 8 receptions for 140 yards

Look for Ridley to repeat his week one performance and dominate the Colts once again. At +400 odds, he needs to hit 100 yards about 20 percent of the time.

Calvin Ridley Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110 BMGM)

Ridley’s 13.6 average depth of target ranks 15th across the NFL per PFF (min. 20 targets). He is also 16th in air yards and 14th in 20+ yard targets. Trevor Lawrence routinely looks for Ridley downfield, and he’s been productive with these opportunities. Check out Ridley’s longest reception in every game so far:

  • 29 yards
  • 26 yards
  • 21 yards
  • 30 yards
  • 32 yards

He’s been under 22.5 yards only once, so it’s confusing to see his line this low given the matchup. Ridley is a zone defense shredder, and Indianapolis’ secondary loves to play zone defense. It’s a personnel and schematic home run for Calvin Ridley, so his yards and longest reception props are steals.

Josh Downs Over 3.5 Receptions (-130 DK) & Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-112 BetRivers)

The rookie out of North Carolina is quickly acclimating to the NFL. Through five weeks, he owns 23 receptions and 255 yards on 33 targets. Downs has displayed excellent chemistry with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who is starting with Anthony Richardson injured. Check out Downs’ stats from the three weeks that Minshew saw significant playing time: 

  • 4 receptions for 37 yards
  • 8 receptions for 57 yards
  • 6 receptions for 97 yards 

Extend those numbers to 17 games, and Downs would be on pace for 102 receptions and 1,082 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s secondary has allowed the tenth most receptions and fourth most receiving yards. Overall, Minshew possesses tremendous chemistry with Downs, and the duo faces a vulnerable Jaguars secondary.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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