Get Dak Prescott player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup
Dak Prescott Player Prop Odds
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Dak Prescott Player Prop Picks
Dak Prescott faces the division rival New York Giants in the season opener. He’s 10-2 against them in his career, so Prescott has had no issues taking down the Giants.
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 DK)
The Giants drafted cornerback Deonte Banks in the first round along with sixth rounder Tre Hawkins III in an effort to bolster a secondary that struggled last season – they ranked 30th in PFF’s coverage grade and 30th in overall defense. While both show promise, the duo will be thrown into the fire against CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Tony Pollard. With Prescott orchestrating the offense and a solid line, the trio should help move the chains and allow Prescott numerous scoring chances.
In addition, New York’s defensive line featuring Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Jihad Ward is the strength of the unit. When Dallas gets to the red zone, their receivers may be more useful as a result. Plus, Lamb and Pollard’s explosiveness mean a screen or intermediate pass can be taken to the house, which only boosts Prescott’s passing touchdown probability.
He has to throw two touchdowns around 52 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. Prescott accomplished two passing touchdowns in 8 of 12 games last season, or 75 percent.
Dak Prescott Most Passing Yards Of Game (-180 FD)
Of the 31 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks, Daniel Jones ranked dead last in average depth of target and 30th in Big Time Throw percentage. He’s not a quarterback that airs it out or throws excellent balls into tight windows, which inherently hurts his passing yards potential. Unsurprisingly, Jones’ 200.3 passing yards per game was 25th in the NFL, while Prescott came in at 13th with 238.3 passing yards per game. In terms of volume and arm talent, Prescott has the advantage.
Dallas’ weapons also lend themselves to passing yards to a much higher degree than New York’s. The running backs are equal, but Lamb and Cooks surpass any players the Giants will trot out. Waller has potential to rack up yards; however, he’s playing hurt and in his first week with the offense. Overall, Prescott is primed to throw for more yards than Jones. He must do so around 64 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110 BMGM)
Despite his strengths, Prescott can be an erratic passer that frequently commits turnovers. He had the most interceptions, the highest interception percentage, the eight highest turnover worthy play percentage, and the tenth highest average depth of target last season per PFF. His shots downfield result in big plays, but they also open him up to more turnover risk than most.
For the bet to have a positive expected value, Prescott must throw an interception about 52 percent of the time. He notched an interception in 10 of 12 games last season – 83.3 percent of the time.