Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in Monday Night Football. Check out below for Derek Carr player props, predictions, and best bets.
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Derek Carr produced 305 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 33 attempts versus Tennessee. How will he fare in Week Two against Carolina?
Derek Carr Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards (-114 FD)
Per PFF, of the 60 wide receivers with at least 70 targets last season, Chris Olave ranked fourth in average depth of target. Rashid Shaheed didn’t reach this volume, but his 11.6 average depth of target would have ranked 28th. They are extremely fast and love to operate downfield. New addition Derek Carr ranked fourth in average depth of target last season, and he made an immediate connection against the Titans. Shaheed caught three passes over 20 yards, including a 41-yarder, and Olave notched a 45-yard reception. Look for Carr and company to air it out against this mediocre Panthers secondary.
For this bet to have a positive expected value, Carr must have a 37 yard completion about 53 percent of the time.
Derek Carr Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-101 Caesars)
With Carr expected to hit numerous deep shots, it follows that he should hit the over on passing yards. Carolina allowed the tenth most passing yards last season and ranked 28th in PFF’s coverage grade. The addition of safety Vonn Bell slightly improves the unit, but they are far from locking down New Orleans’ explosive receivers.
Carolina’s offense isn’t fangless either, so Carr likely won’t completely abandon the pass to constantly run down the clock. First overall pick Bryce Young definitely experienced growing pains, but he also threw some darts against Atlanta. Jonathan Mingo, Adam Thielen, and Terrace Marshall Jr provide at least a semblance of help, while Miles Sanders is a legitimate three-down back coming off a 1,000 yard season. Overall, Carr should dice up Carolina and rack up yards.
For this bet to have a positive expected value, Carr must hit 232 passing yards about 50 percent of the time.
Derek Carr Under 0.5 Interceptions (-114 BetRivers)
Carolina snagged 10 interceptions last season, which was the sixth fewest across the NFL. Carr isn’t caution itself, but he’s not turnover prone either. Game script should help Carr avoid a turnover here. Because the Saints are expected to lead by a decent margin, he won’t need to commit risky throws in order to score points and catch up quickly. Therefore, he can pick when to take the shot. New Orleans’ speed should protect him anyways because Carr is frequently leading a receiver into open space instead of utilizing the intermediate middle of the field.
For this bet to have a positive expected value, Carr must avoid an interception about 53 percent of the time.